Hydro-climatic extremes shift the hydrologic sensitivity regime in a cold basin.

Escalating climate extreme events disrupt hydrological processes by affecting both water availability and sediment dynamics. However, the interconnection between hydrological variability and climatic extremes remains underexplored, particularly in cold regions under a changing climate. Here, we develop a yield-based dichotomy framework to examine the impact of shifted climatic extreme patterns on hydrological regimes in the Ishikari River Basin (IRB), Hokkaido, Japan, which is a crucial area for local agriculture and urban development.

Climate change multi-model projections in CMIP6 scenarios in Central Hokkaido, Japan.

Simulation of future climate changes, especially temperature and rainfall, is critical for water resource management, disaster mitigation, and agricultural development. Based on the category-wise indicator method, two preferred Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the Ishikari River basin (IRB), the socio-economic center of Hokkaido, Japan, were examined from the newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Climatic variables (maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation) were projected by the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) under all shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (SSP1-1.