Risky cascading transitions in international relationships.

Changing attitudes in diplomatic relations is a common feature of international politics. However, such changes may trigger risky domino-like cascades of "friend-to-enemy" transitions among other counties and yielding catastrophic damage that could reshape the global network of international relationships. While previous attention has been focused on studying single pairs of international relationships, due to the lack of a systematic framework, it remains still unknown whether, and how, a single transition of attitude between two countries could trigger a cascade of attitude transitions among other countries.

Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships.

In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy-trend logical relationships. Firstly, the proposed method fuzzifies the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor into fuzzy sets, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, it groups the obtained two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups.