Adaptive potential in the face of a transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils.

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) not only cause catastrophic declines in wildlife populations but also generate selective pressures that may result in rapid evolutionary responses. One such EID is devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) in the Tasmanian devil. DFTD is almost always fatal and has reduced the average lifespan of individuals by around 2 years, likely causing strong selection for traits that reduce susceptibility to the disease, but population decline has also left Tasmanian devils vulnerable to inbreeding depression.

Investigating tritrophic interactions using bioenergetic demographic models.

A central debate in ecology has been the long-running discussion on the role of apex predators in affecting the abundance and dynamics of their prey. In terrestrial systems, research has primarily relied on correlational approaches, due to the challenge of implementing robust experiments with replication and appropriate controls. A consequence of this is that we largely suffer from a lack of mechanistic understanding of the population dynamics of interacting species, which can be surprisingly complex.

Demographic profiles and environmental drivers of variation relate to individual breeding state in a long-lived trans-oceanic migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater.

Understanding the points in a species breeding cycle when they are most vulnerable to environmental fluctuations is key to understanding interannual demography and guiding effective conservation and management. Seabirds represent one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, and climate change and severe weather is a prominent and increasing threat to this group. We used a multi-state capture-recapture model to examine how the demographic rates of a long-lived trans-oceanic migrant seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, are influenced by environmental conditions experienced at different stages of the annual breeding cycle and whether these relationships vary with an individual's breeding state in the previous year (i.

Investigating the Dynamics of Elk Population Size and Body Mass in a Seasonal Environment Using a Mechanistic Integral Projection Model.

Environmentally mediated changes in body size often underlie population responses to environmental change, yet this is not a universal phenomenon. Understanding when phenotypic change underlies population responses to environmental change is important for obtaining insights and robust predictions of population dynamics in a changing world. We develop a dynamic integral projection model that mechanistically links environmental conditions to demographic rates and phenotypic traits (body size) via changes in resource availability and individual energetics.

Views of UK doctors in training on the timing of choosing a clinical specialty: quantitative and qualitative analysis of surveys 3 years after graduation.

Background: Workforce studies show a declining proportion of UK junior doctors proceeding directly to specialist training, with many taking career breaks. Doctors may be choosing to delay this important career decision.

Aim: To assess doctors' views on the timing of choosing a clinical specialty.

Large-effect loci affect survival in Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) infected with a transmissible cancer.

Identifying the genetic architecture of complex phenotypes is a central goal of modern biology, particularly for disease-related traits. Genome-wide association methods are a classical approach for identifying the genomic basis of variation in disease phenotypes, but such analyses are particularly challenging in natural populations due to sample size difficulties. Extensive mark-recapture data, strong linkage disequilibrium and a lethal transmissible cancer make the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) an ideal model for such an association study.

The Certainty of Uncertainty: Potential Sources of Bias and Imprecision in Disease Ecology Studies.

Wildlife diseases have important implications for wildlife and human health, the preservation of biodiversity and the resilience of ecosystems. However, understanding disease dynamics and the impacts of pathogens in wild populations is challenging because these complex systems can rarely, if ever, be observed without error. Uncertainty in disease ecology studies is commonly defined in terms of either heterogeneity in detectability (due to variation in the probability of encountering, capturing, or detecting individuals in their natural habitat) or uncertainty in disease state assignment (due to misclassification errors or incomplete information).

Factors influencing the decisions of senior UK doctors to retire or remain in medicine: national surveys of the UK-trained medical graduates of 1974 and 1977.

Objective: To report attitudes to retirement of late-career doctors.

Design: Questionnaires sent in 2014 to all UK medical graduates of 1974 and 1977.

Setting: United Kingdom.

Factors associated with less-than-full-time working in medical practice: results of surveys of five cohorts of UK doctors, 10 years after graduation.

Background: The greater participation of women in medicine in recent years, and recent trends showing that doctors of both sexes work fewer hours than in the past, present challenges for medical workforce planning. In this study, we provide a detailed analysis of the characteristics of doctors who choose to work less-than-full-time (LTFT). We aimed to determine the influence of these characteristics on the probability of working LTFT.

Associations between perceived institutional support, job enjoyment, and intentions to work in the United Kingdom: national questionnaire survey of first year doctors.

Background: Identifying factors that improve job satisfaction of new doctors and ease the difficult transition from student to doctor is of great interest to public health agencies. Studies to date have focused primarily on the value of changes to medical school curricula and induction processes in this regard, but have overlooked the extent to which institutional support can influence new doctors' enjoyment of and attitude to work. Here, we examine variation in the perceived level of support received by new medical graduates in the United Kingdom (UK) from their employer and whether this influences enjoyment of and attitudes to the first postgraduate year, and whether doctors who perceived a lower level of support were less inclined to intend a long term career in medicine in the UK.

Self-reported preparedness for clinical work has increased among recent cohorts of UK-trained first-year doctors.

Introduction: UK medical schools have made considerable efforts to ensure that graduates are well prepared for their first year of clinical work. We report the views of two recent cohorts of UK-trained doctors 1 year after graduation about whether their medical school prepared them well, and compare responses with earlier cohorts.

Methods: We surveyed doctors who qualified in 2011 and 2012 from all UK medical schools.

The lyme disease pathogen has no effect on the survival of its rodent reservoir host.

Zoonotic pathogens that cause devastating morbidity and mortality in humans may be relatively harmless in their natural reservoir hosts. The tick-borne bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi causes Lyme disease in humans but few studies have investigated whether this pathogen reduces the fitness of its reservoir hosts under natural conditions. We analyzed four years of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data on a population of white-footed mice, Peromyscus leucopus, to test whether B.

A multievent approach to estimating pair fidelity and heterogeneity in state transitions.

Fidelity rates of pair-bonded individuals are of considerable interest to behavioral and population biologists as they can influence population structure, mating rates, population productivity, and gene flow. Estimates of fidelity rates calculated from direct observations of pairs in consecutive breeding seasons may be biased because (i) individuals that are not seen are assumed to be dead, (ii) variation in the detectability of individuals is ignored, and (iii) pair status must be known with certainty. This can lead to a high proportion of observations being ignored.

Mhc supertypes confer both qualitative and quantitative resistance to avian malaria infections in a wild bird population.

Major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) genes are believed to play a key role in the genetic basis of disease control. Although numerous studies have sought links between Mhc and disease prevalence, many have ignored the ecological and epidemiological aspects of the host-parasite interaction. Consequently, interpreting associations between prevalence and Mhc has been difficult, whereas discriminating alleles for qualitative resistance, quantitative resistance and susceptibility remains challenging.

Mhc-linked survival and lifetime reproductive success in a wild population of great tits.

Major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) genes are frequently used as a model for adaptive genetic diversity. Although associations between Mhc and disease resistance are frequently documented, little is known about the fitness consequences of Mhc variation in wild populations. Further, most work to date has involved testing associations between Mhc genotypes and fitness components.

Individual and population-level impacts of an emerging poxvirus disease in a wild population of great tits.

Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife can have severe effects on host populations and constitute a pressing problem for biodiversity conservation. Paridae pox is an unusually severe form of avipoxvirus infection that has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease particularly affecting an abundant songbird, the great tit (Parus major), in Great Britain. In this study, we study the invasion and establishment of Paridae pox in a long-term monitored population of wild great tits to (i) quantify the impact of this novel pathogen on host fitness and (ii) determine the potential threat it poses to population persistence.

Emergence of a novel avian pox disease in British tit species.

Avian pox is a viral disease with a wide host range. In Great Britain, avian pox in birds of the Paridae family was first diagnosed in a great tit (Parus major) from south-east England in 2006. An increasing number of avian pox incidents in Paridae have been reported each year since, indicative of an emergent infection.

Epidemiology of the emergent disease Paridae pox in an intensively studied wild bird population.

Paridae pox, a novel avipoxvirus infection, has recently been identified as an emerging infectious disease affecting wild tit species in Great Britain. The incursion of Paridae pox to a long-term study site where populations of wild tits have been monitored in detail for several decades provided a unique opportunity to obtain information on the local-scale epidemiological characteristics of this novel infection during a disease outbreak. Using captures of >8000 individual birds, we show that, within two years of initial emergence, Paridae pox had become established within the population of great tits (Parus major) reaching relatively high peak prevalence (10%), but was far less prevalent (<1%) in sympatric populations of several other closely related, abundant Paridae species.

Reduced effect of Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease at the disease front.

Pathogen-driven declines in animal populations are increasingly regarded as a major conservation issue. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is threatened with extinction by devil facial tumor disease, a unique transmissible cancer. The disease is transmitted through direct transfer of tumor cells, which is possible because the genetic diversity of Tasmanian devils is low, particularly in the major histocompatibility complex genes of the immune system.

Infection dynamics of endemic malaria in a wild bird population: parasite species-dependent drivers of spatial and temporal variation in transmission rates.

1. Investigating the ecological context in which host-parasite interactions occur and the roles of biotic and abiotic factors in forcing infection dynamics is essential to understanding disease transmission, spread and maintenance. 2.

Fitness effects of endemic malaria infections in a wild bird population: the importance of ecological structure.

1. Parasites can have important effects on host populations influencing either fecundity or mortality, but understanding the magnitude of these effects in endemic host-parasite systems is challenging and requires an understanding of ecological processes affecting both host and parasite. 2.

Transmission dynamics of Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease may lead to disease-induced extinction.

Most pathogens threatening to cause extinction of a host species are maintained on one or more reservoir hosts, in addition to the species that is threatened by disease. Further, most conventional host-pathogen theory assumes that transmission is related to host density, and therefore a pathogen should become extinct before its sole host. Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease is a recently emerged infectious cancer that has led to massive population declines and grave concerns for the future persistence of this largest surviving marsupial carnivore.

Evaluation of selective culling of infected individuals to control tasmanian devil facial tumor disease.

Sustainable strategies to manage infectious diseases in threatened wildlife are still lacking despite considerable concern over the global increase in emerging infectious diseases of wildlife and their potential to drive populations to extinction. Selective culling of infected individuals will often be the most feasible option to control infectious disease in a threatened wildlife host, but has seldom been implemented or evaluated as a management tool for the conservation of threatened species. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) is threatened with extinction by an infectious cancer, devil facial tumor disease (DFTD).