Modelling hepatitis C infection acquired from blood transfusions in the UK between 1970 and 1991 for the Infected Blood Inquiry.

The Statistics Expert Group was convened at the request of the Infected Blood Inquiry to provide estimates of the number of infections and deaths from blood-borne infections including hepatitis B virus, human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV) and variant Creutzfeldt Jakob disease, as a direct result of contaminated blood and blood products administered in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK). In the absence of databases of HCV infections and related deaths for all nations of the UK, a statistical model was required to estimate the number of infections and subsequent deaths from HCV acquired from blood transfusions from January 1970 to August 1991. We present this statistical model in detail alongside the results of its application to each of the four nations in the UK.

Correction: Tracking the incidence and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection using historical maternal booking serum samples.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.

Opioid-related deaths and their counterpart by occurrence era, age group and coimplicated drugs: Scotland vs. England and Wales.

Aims: Compare by occurrence era and age group how opioid-related deaths (ORDs) and their counterpart evolved in Scotland vs. England and Wales during 2006-2020. For Scotland, compare coimplication rates between ORDs and non-ORDs for any benzodiazepine, cocaine or gabapentin/pregabalin, and consider whether coimplication in ORDs depended on opioid-specificity.

Tracking the incidence and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection using historical maternal booking serum samples.

The early transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK are unknown but their investigation is critical to aid future pandemic planning. We tested over 11,000 anonymised, stored historic antenatal serum samples, given at two north-west London NHS trusts in 2019 and 2020, for total antibody to SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (anti-RBD). Estimated prevalence of seroreactivity increased from 1% prior to mid-February 2020 to 17% in September 2020.

Study-design in pandemics: From surveillance and performance-evaluation to licensing and pharmacovigilance.

Andy Grieve, the first pharmaceutical statistician to be President of the Royal Statistical Society, practiced in the regulated world of drug development. With reduction in drug development costs as his motivation, Grieve advanced Bayesian methods for developing predictive methods for efficacy and toxicity - to be used as early as possible in the drug development process; and his presidential address exhorted statisticians to weigh-in wherever data are used to make decisions. Diagnostic tests for infectious diseases are less regulated than drugs and vaccines unless the blood supply is at risk.

Medical research, data sharing, and properly informed consent.

When agreed to participate in a Covid surveillance study, she did not realise her negative test result and personal details would be passed to NHS Test and Trace. Here, she calls for closer scrutiny of privacy policies by research ethics committees, and clearer communication with study participants.

Rapid antigen testing in COVID-19 management for school-aged children: an observational study in Cheshire and Merseyside, UK.

Background: Twice weekly lateral flow tests (LFTs) for secondary school children was UK Government policy from 8 March 2021. We evaluate use of LFTs (both supervised at test centres, and home test kits) in school-aged children in Cheshire and Merseyside.

Methods: We report (i) number of LFT positives (ii) proportion of LFT positive with confirmatory reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test within 2 days, and (iii) agreement between LFT-positive and confirmatory PCR, and dependence of (i-iii) on COVID-19 prevalence.

Covid tests in secondary schools: A statistical cause célèbre.

offers a personal account of the debate over rapid coronavirus screening in secondary schools, and the efforts to reinstate confirmatory PCR tests.

Quality of care for adult in-patients with malaria in a tertiary hospital in Uganda.

Background: Prompt detection and appropriate treatment of malaria prevents severe disease and death. The quality of care for adult malaria in-patients is not well documented in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Uganda. The study sought to describe the patterns of malaria diagnosis and treatment among adult in-patients admitted to the medical and gynaecological wards of Uganda's 1790-bed Mulago National Referral Hospital from December 2013 to April 2014.

Fatal accident inquiries into 83 deaths in Scottish prison custody: 2010-2013.

Background: The only non-legal reference in Lord Cullen's Review of fatal accident inquiry (FAI) Legislation in Scotland (2009) was my audit of FAIs into 97 deaths in prison custody in Scotland, 1999-2003: recommending that waiting time from prisoner death to end of FAI should be less than 1 year for 90% of FAIs, and epidemiological rules for FAIs to have a written determination versus formal findings.

Aims: Audit of FAIs into 83 deaths in Scottish prison custody in the period 2010-2013.

Method: Assessement of waiting times from prisoner death to end of FAI; dissemination of written determinations; self-inflicted death rate per 1000 prisoner-years; cause of natural deaths; and yellow card submissions.

Distinct temporal trends in breast cancer incidence from 1997 to 2016 by molecular subtypes: a population-based study of Scottish cancer registry data.

Background: We describe temporal trends in breast cancer incidence by molecular subtypes in Scotland because public health prevention programmes, diagnostic and therapeutic services are shaped by differences in tumour biology.

Methods: Population-based cancer registry data on 72,217 women diagnosed with incident primary breast cancer from 1997 to 2016 were analysed. Age-standardised rates (ASR) and age-specific incidence were estimated by tumour subtype after imputing the 8% of missing oestrogen receptor (ER) status.

Scotland's 2009-2015 methadone-prescription cohort: Quintiles for daily dose of prescribed methadone and risk of methadone-specific death.

Aims: As methadone clients age, their drug-related death (DRD) risks increase, more than doubling at 45+ years for methadone-specific DRDs.

Methods: Using Community Health Index (CHI) numbers, mortality to 31 December 2015 was ascertained for 36 347 methadone-prescription clients in Scotland during 2009-2015. Cohort entry, quantity of prescribed methadone and daily dose (actual or recovered by effective, simple rules) were defined by clients' first CHI-identified methadone prescription after 30 June 2009 and used in proportional hazards analysis.

Non drug-related and opioid-specific causes of 3262 deaths in Scotland's methadone-prescription clients, 2009-2015.

Background: Opioid drug use is a major cause of premature mortality, with opioid substitution therapy the leading intervention. As methadone-clients age, non-drug-related deaths (non-DRDs) predominate and DRD-risks increase differentially, quadrupling at 45+ years for methadone-specific DRDs.

Methods: 36,606 methadone-prescription-clients in Scotland during 2009-2015 were linked to mortality records to end-2015 by their Community Health Index (CHI).

Prevalence of recent fentanyl use among treated users of illicit opioids in England: based on piloted urine drug screens.

Objective: To use a pilot of national fentanyl screening to establish the current prevalence of recent fentanyl use among treated users of illicit opioids in the English treatment system and inform the design of a full study.

Design: Cross-sectional fentanyl metabolite urine screening in randomly-selected study sites, stratified to cover all nine geographical regions of England, supplemented with self-report subsequent to a positive fentanyl test.

Patients: 468 adult (18 years of age and above) patients receiving treatment for opioid use disorder, screened December 2017 to May 2018.

Adverse Drug Reaction Onsets in Uganda's VigiBase: Delayed International Visibility, Data Quality and Illustrative Signal Detection Analyses.

Introduction: Developing countries can improve their pharmacovigilance systems by analysing their own medication safety data.

Objective: The aims of this study were to characterize Uganda's reported adverse drug reaction (ADR) onsets in 2012-2015 that were registered on VigiBase by 31 December 2017, to document delays in international visibility and the influence of covariates on this delay from ADR onsets in 2013 + 2014, to examine data quality, and to illustrate analytical approaches for safety data, particularly for patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods: International delay was defined as elapsed time from complete ADR onset date to entry date on VigiBase, with covariates examined using Cox proportional hazards regression.

Multiple Systems Estimation (or Capture-Recapture Estimation) to Inform Public Policy.

Estimating population sizes has long been of interest, from the estimation of the human or ecological population size within regions or countries to the hidden number of civilian casualties in a war. Total enumeration of the population, for example, via a census, is often infeasible or simply impractical. However, a series of partial enumerations or observations of the population is often possible.