Bioclimatic modeling and FACE study forecast a bleak future for wheat production in India.

Since the impact of future climate change on wheat productivity is inconsistent, we studied geographic distribution and yield of wheat using two global General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Free Air COO Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The GCMs (IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO) with four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and 19 bioclimatic variables were used for distribution/ecological niche modeling (ENM). Currently cultivated eight wheat cultivars were exposed to individual treatment of (i) ambient CO, temperature, and ozone (ACO + AO + AT) representing the present climate scenario, and (ii) elevated CO (550 ppm) (ECO), (iii) elevated temperature (+ 2 °C) (ET), (iv) elevated O (ambient + 20 ppb) (EO), (v) elevated CO + elevated O (ECO + EO), and (vi) elevated CO + elevated temperature + elevated O (ECO + EO + ET) under FACE facility simulating the future climate change scenarios in 2050.