Publications by authors named "Shangchen Zhang"
Article Synopsis
- Cities are crucial for understanding population dynamics, especially for urban planning and environmental projections, but there's a lack of reliable city-level population projections in China.
- Current methods that aggregate data from smaller regions introduce significant errors (around 30%), causing inaccuracies in population trends.
- This study improves upon previous work by enhancing the demographic model with city-level data, redesigning migration modules to reflect local factors, and examining various fertility and migration scenarios.
Background: We have limited knowledge on the impact of hydrometeorological conditions on dengue incidence in China and its associated disease burden in a future with a changed climate. This study projects the excess risk of dengue caused by climate change-induced hydrometeorological conditions across mainland China.
Methods: In this modelling study, the historical association between the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and dengue was estimated with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model from 70 cities.