Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections.

Population projections provide predictions of future population sizes for an area. Historically, most population projections have been produced using deterministic or scenario-based approaches and have not assessed uncertainty about future population change. Starting in 2015, however, the United Nations (UN) has produced probabilistic population projections for all countries using a Bayesian approach.

Probabilistic Estimation and Projection of the Annual Total Fertility Rate Accounting for Past Uncertainty: A Major Update of the bayesTFR R Package.

The package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rates (TFR) for all countries, and is widely used, including as part of the basis for the UN's official population projections for all countries. Liu and Raftery (2020) extended the theoretical model by adding a layer that accounts for the past TFR estimation uncertainty. A major update of implements the new extension.

Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term.

Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are desired to get an idea of accuracy, assess changes, and make decisions involving risks. In a significant breakthrough, since 2015, the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology that we review here.

Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO.

The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO estimates no longer reflect the latest research.

Fungal Planet description sheets: 1383-1435.

Novel species of fungi described in this study include those from various countries as follows: , , and on soil, from stem cankers of , from stem of , and from leaves of , as endophyte from roots of , from stem of , from leaves of × and from roots of , from intertidal wood and (incl. gen. nov.

Complex, Four New Species Described and Resurrected.

We studied the taxonomy of and similar species using morphological and molecular (nrITS, ) data, including a detailed study of the type collection of . Based on our results, we recognize five species in this group: sensu stricto and four other taxa: ; ; and described here as new. All these taxa are distinct from each other based on molecular data, but some of them are semi-cryptic based on morphology and co-occur in the Palaearctic region.

Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy.

Projecting mortality for subnational units, or regions, is of great interest to practicing demographers. We seek a probabilistic method for projecting subnational life expectancy that is based on the national Bayesian hierarchical model used by the United Nations, and at the same time is easy to use. We propose three methods of this kind.

Fungal Planet description sheets: 1112-1181.

Novel species of fungi described in this study include those from various countries as follows: , on soil, on leaves of on leaves of on leaves of sp., on soil, (incl. gen.

, and -Three New Species in Subgenus (, Basidiomycota) with Comments on and Related Species.

is one of the taxonomically most complicated genera of Agaricomycetes with several taxonomically lineages. The subgenus of the genus contains species with either urticoid or absent cheilocystidia. In this paper, three new European species, , , and are described as new to science.

Fungal Systematics and Evolution: FUSE 5.

Thirteen new species are formally described: from Pakistan, from India, on from Iran, from China, on species of , , and (Coleoptera, Carabidae) from Nicaragua and Panama, on (Hemiptera, Veliidae) from Brazil, on (Blattodea, Termitidae) from the DR Congo, from Slovenia, from Peru, from China, on from Italy, from , on subsp. from Pakistan. The following new records are reported: on from India; on apple and quince fruits from Iran; from Turkey; and on from Italy; causing tip blight of '' from India; from Madeira, Portugal, new for Macaronesia and Africa; , , and from Russia; on from India; on from Italy; on from Austria; from Turkey; from Wisconsin, USA; and from Turkey.

Root cultures of potato mutant lacking MSPI isoform, indispensable for photosynthetic light reactions, exhibit characteristics similar to intact plant roots.

Potato (Solanum tuberosum) mutant (ST) lacking one isoform of manganese-stabilizing protein (MSPI) of photosystem II exhibited besides spontaneous tuberization also growth changes with strongly impaired root system development. Previous studies revealed marked changes in carbohydrate levels and allocation within ST plant body. To verify causal relationship between changed carbohydrate balance and root growth restriction we engaged dark grown sucrose-supplied root organ-cultures of ST plants to exclude/confirm shoot effects.

Expression of Arabidopsis WEE1 in tobacco induces unexpected morphological and developmental changes.

WEE1 regulates the cell cycle by inactivating cyclin dependent protein kinases (CDKs) via phosphorylation. In yeast and animal cells, CDC25 phosphatase dephosphorylates the CDK releasing cells into mitosis, but in plants, its role is less clear. Expression of fission yeast CDC25 (Spcdc25) in tobacco results in small cell size, premature flowering and increased shoot morphogenetic capacity in culture.

Mixotrophic in vitro cultivations: the way to go astray in plant physiology.

Rate of photosynthesis and related plant carbohydrate status are crucial factors affecting plant vigor. Sugars providing carbon and energy sources serve also as important signaling molecules governing plant growth and development through a complex regulatory network. These facts are often neglected when mixotrophic cultivation of plants in vitro is used, where artificial exogenous sugar supply hinders studies of metabolism as well as sugar-driven developmental processes.

Fungal Systematics and Evolution: FUSE 3.

The present study introduces seven new species, one new combination, one new variety and several interesting taxonomical notes and/or geographical records. Most of the new taxa are Ascomycetes, but the study also includes a new variety of a Basidiomycete. Novel species include (Discinaceae, Pezizales, Pezizomycetes) from Pakistan growing near and and (Stachybotriaceae, Hypocreales, Sordariomycetes) both isolated from soil in China.

Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates.

Background: We consider the problem of probabilistic projection of the total fertility rate (TFR) for subnational regions.

Objective: We seek a method that is consistent with the UN's recently adopted Bayesian method for probabilistic TFR projections for all countries and works well for all countries.

Methods: We assess various possible methods using subnational TFR data for 47 countries.

Carbohydrates and gibberellins relationship in potato tuberization.

Potato represents the third most important crop worldwide and therefore to understand regulations of tuber onset is crucial from both theoretical and practical points of view. Photosynthesis and related carbohydrate status along with phytohormone balance belong to the essential factors in regulation of plant development including storage organ formation. In our work we used potato (Solanum tuberosum) cv.

: Probabilistic Population Projections.

We describe , an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths.

Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.

We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries.

Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries.

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for producing probabilistic forecasts of male period life expectancy at birth for all the countries of the world to 2100. Such forecasts would be an input to the production of probabilistic population projections for all countries, which is currently being considered by the United Nations. To evaluate the method, we conducted an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment, fitting the model to the data from 1950-1995 and using the estimated model to forecast for the subsequent 10 years.