Publications by authors named "Seth Wynes"

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employs emission scenarios to explore a range of future climate outcomes but refrains from assigning probabilities to individual scenarios. However, IPCC authors have their own views on the likelihood of different climate outcomes, which are valuable to understand because authors possess both expert insight and considerable influence. Here we report the results of a survey of 211 IPCC authors about the likelihood of four key climate outcomes.

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Human activities have caused global temperatures to increase by 1.25°C, and the current emissions trajectory suggests that we will exceed 1.5°C in less than 10 years.

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Unlike other greenhouse gas sources associated with professional sports, team air travel is highly visible, under direct league control, and extremely difficult to decarbonize with technological advancement alone. In an analysis of air travel emissions from the four largest North American sports leagues, I estimate that teams traveled a combined 7.5 million kilometers in 2018, generating nearly 122 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions.

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Unlabelled: Urgent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions depend on governments implementing and enforcing rigorous climate policy. Individuals in democracies seeking to persuade government officials to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can take steps such as voting, protesting, and contacting officials directly, but it is unclear how effective each of these actions is in changing the behavior of elected officials. Here we take advantage of the public nature of social media to evaluate the actual efficacy of climate campaign emails using an original, real-world experiment where 335 Members of Canadian Parliament were asked by constituents to post a pro-climate message to their Twitter account.

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Background: Each spring, thousands of Canadian medical students travel across the country to interview for residency positions, a process known as the CaRMS tour. Despite the large scale of travel, the CaRMS tour has received little environmental scrutiny.

Purpose: To estimate the national carbon footprint of flights associated with the CaRMS tour, as well as reductions in emissions achievable by transitioning to alternative models.

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Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change poses severe risks to human and natural systems, many young Canadian adults do not view it as a major issue. We analyzed secondary science curricula in each province for their coverage of climate change according to six core topics: physical climate mechanisms ("It's climate"), observed increase in temperature ("It's warming"), anthropogenic causes of warming ("It's us"), scientific consensus ("Experts agree"), negative consequences associated with warming ("It's bad"), and the possibility for avoiding the worst effects ("We can fix it"). We found that learning objectives tend to focus on knowledge of the first three elements, with little or no emphasis on scientific consensus, climate change impacts, or ways to address the issue.

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