Approach to prediction and receiver operating characteristic analysis of a regression model for assessing the severity of the course Lyme borreliosis in children.

Introduction: Lyme borreliosis (LB) is a multisystemic zoonotic disease transmitted by the bite of infected tick vectors.The aim of the study is to develop a mathematical model for predicting the risk of severity of Lyme disease by the risk factor of the disseminated form of LB in children who have had a tick attack. To test the effectiveness of the formula for predicting the development of the disseminated stage of LB, we built a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and determined the specificity and sensitivity of our model.