Mutual reinforcement of land-based carbon dioxide removal and international emissions trading in deep decarbonization scenarios.

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and international emissions trading are both widely represented in climate change mitigation scenarios, but the interplay among them has not been closely examined. By systematically varying key policy and technology assumptions in a global energy-economic model, we find that CDR and international emissions trading are mutually reinforcing in deep decarbonization scenarios. This occurs because CDR potential is not evenly distributed geographically, allowing trade to unlock this potential, and because trading in a net-zero emissions world requires negative emissions, allowing CDR to enable trade.

Rapid Estimation of Climate-Air Quality Interactions in Integrated Assessment Using a Response Surface Model.

Air quality and climate change are substantial and linked sustainability challenges, and there is a need for improved tools to assess the implications of addressing these challenges together. Due to the high computational cost of accurately assessing these challenges, integrated assessment models (IAMs) used in policy development often use global- or regional-scale marginal response factors to calculate air quality impacts of climate scenarios. We bridge the gap between IAMs and high-fidelity simulation by developing a computationally efficient approach to quantify how combined climate and air quality interventions affect air quality outcomes, including capturing spatial heterogeneity and complex atmospheric chemistry.

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates.

Water consumption footprint and land requirements of large-scale alternative diesel and jet fuel production.

Middle distillate (MD) transportation fuels, including diesel and jet fuel, make up almost 30% of liquid fuel consumption in the United States. Alternative drop-in MD and biodiesel could potentially reduce dependence on crude oil and the greenhouse gas intensity of transportation. However, the water and land resource requirements of these novel fuel production technologies must be better understood.

Using land to mitigate climate change: hitting the target, recognizing the trade-offs.

Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth's average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target.

Contribution of anaerobic digesters to emissions mitigation and electricity generation under U.S. climate policy.

Livestock husbandry in the U.S. significantly contributes to many environmental problems, including the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas (GHG).

Indirect emissions from biofuels: how important?

A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. Our model predicts that indirect land use will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss (up to twice as much) than direct land use; however, because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon losses themselves in terms of warming potential.