Statistical physics of the development of Kerner's synchronized-to-free-flow instability at a moving bottleneck in vehicular traffic.

With the use of simulations of a stochastic microscopic traffic model in the framework of the three-phase traffic theory, we have revealed the statistical physics of a traffic flow instability with respect to a transition from synchronized flow (S) to free flow (F) (Kerner's S→F instability) at a moving bottleneck (MB) occurring through a slow-moving vehicle in vehicular traffic. We have found that the S→F instability can occur at the MB more frequently than at an on-ramp bottleneck. From a comparison of the occurrence of the S→F instability at the MB and on-ramp bottleneck at the same probability of traffic breakdown and the same flow rate it has been found that, whereas the frequency of the S→F instability at the on-ramp bottleneck barely changes, the larger the velocity of the MB, the more frequently the S→F instability occurs at the MB.

Physics of microscopic vehicular traffic prediction for automated driving.

With the use of microscopic traffic simulations, physical features of microscopic traffic prediction for automated driving that should improve traffic harmonization and safety have been found: During a short-time prediction horizon (about 10 s), online prediction of the locations and speeds of all vehicles in some limited area around the automated-driving vehicle is possible; this enables the automated vehicle control in complex traffic situations in which the automated-driving vehicle is not able to make a decision based on current traffic information without the use of the microscopic traffic prediction. Through a more detailed analysis of an unsignalized city intersection, when the automated vehicle wants to turn right from a secondary road onto the priority road, the statistical physics of the effect of a data uncertainty caused by errors in data measurements on the prediction reliability has been studied: (i) probability of the prediction reliability has been found; (ii) there is a critical uncertainty, i.e.

Probabilistic physical characteristics of phase transitions at highway bottlenecks: incommensurability of three-phase and two-phase traffic-flow theories.

Physical features of induced phase transitions in a metastable free flow at an on-ramp bottleneck in three-phase and two-phase cellular automaton (CA) traffic-flow models have been revealed. It turns out that at given flow rates at the bottleneck, to induce a moving jam (F → J transition) in the metastable free flow through the application of a time-limited on-ramp inflow impulse, in both two-phase and three-phase CA models the same critical amplitude of the impulse is required. If a smaller impulse than this critical one is applied, neither F → J transition nor other phase transitions can occur in the two-phase CA model.

Empirical synchronized flow in oversaturated city traffic.

Based on a study of anonymized GPS probe vehicle traces measured by personal navigation devices in vehicles randomly distributed in city traffic, empirical synchronized flow in oversaturated city traffic has been revealed. It turns out that real oversaturated city traffic resulting from speed breakdown in a city in most cases can be considered random spatiotemporal alternations between sequences of moving queues and synchronized flow patterns in which the moving queues do not occur.

Synchronized flow in oversaturated city traffic.

Based on numerical simulations with a stochastic three-phase traffic flow model, we reveal that moving queues (moving jams) in oversaturated city traffic dissolve at some distance upstream of the traffic signal while transforming into synchronized flow. It is found that, as in highway traffic [Kerner, Phys. Rev.

Simple cellular automaton model for traffic breakdown, highway capacity, and synchronized flow.

We present a simple cellular automaton (CA) model for two-lane roads explaining the physics of traffic breakdown, highway capacity, and synchronized flow. The model consists of the rules "acceleration," "deceleration," "randomization," and "motion" of the Nagel-Schreckenberg CA model as well as "overacceleration through lane changing to the faster lane," "comparison of vehicle gap with the synchronization gap," and "speed adaptation within the synchronization gap" of Kerner's three-phase traffic theory. We show that these few rules of the CA model can appropriately simulate fundamental empirical features of traffic breakdown and highway capacity found in traffic data measured over years in different countries, like characteristics of synchronized flow, the existence of the spontaneous and induced breakdowns at the same bottleneck, and associated probabilistic features of traffic breakdown and highway capacity.

Phase transitions in traffic flow on multilane roads.

Based on empirical and numerical analyses of vehicular traffic, the physics of spatiotemporal phase transitions in traffic flow on multilane roads is revealed. The complex dynamics of moving jams observed in single vehicle data measured by video cameras on American highways is explained by the nucleation-interruption effect in synchronized flow, i.e.

Microscopic features of moving traffic jams.

Empirical and numerical microscopic features of moving traffic jams are presented. Based on a single vehicle data analysis, it is found that within wide moving jams, i.e.

Microscopic theory of spatial-temporal congested traffic patterns at highway bottlenecks.

A microscopic theory of spatial-temporal congested traffic patterns at highway bottlenecks due to on-ramps, merge bottlenecks (a reduction of highway lanes), and off-ramps is presented. The basic postulate of three-phase traffic theory is used, which claims that homogeneous (in space and time) model solutions (steady states) of synchronized flow cover a two dimensional region in the flow-density plane [B. S.