Novel modelling approaches to predict the role of antivirals in reducing influenza transmission.

To aid understanding of the effect of antiviral treatment on population-level influenza transmission, we used a novel pharmacokinetic-viral kinetic transmission model to test the correlation between nasal viral load and infectiousness, and to evaluate the impact that timing of treatment with the antivirals oseltamivir or baloxavir has on influenza transmission. The model was run under three candidate profiles whereby infectiousness was assumed to be proportional to viral titer on a natural-scale, log-scale, or dose-response model. Viral kinetic profiles in the presence and absence of antiviral treatment were compared for each individual (N = 1000 simulated individuals); subsequently, viral transmission mitigation was calculated.

A Pharmacokinetics-Time to Alleviation of Symptoms Model to Support Extrapolation of Baloxavir Marboxil Clinical Efficacy in Different Ethnic Groups with Influenza A or B.

Baloxavir marboxil, the prodrug of baloxavir acid, is an anti-influenza antiviral. Here, a pharmacokinetics-time to alleviation of symptoms (PK-TTAS) model was developed and used to (I) characterize the PK-TTAS relationship, (II) quantify the impact of covariates, and (III) predict TTAS in different ethnic groups. Data from 1781 otherwise-healthy (OwH) or high-risk (HR) patients included in phase II (JapicCTI-153090) and III studies (NCT02954354 and NCT02949011) were used; patients received either placebo or oral baloxavir marboxil.

Pharmacokinetics, safety, and simulated efficacy of an influenza treatment, baloxavir marboxil, in Chinese individuals.

Baloxavir marboxil is an endonuclease inhibitor indicated for the treatment of influenza in patients ≥12 years. No data exist for Chinese patients in global studies. This randomized, open-label, phase I study evaluated the pharmacokinetics (PK) and safety of baloxavir marboxil in healthy Chinese volunteers and was used to anticipate efficacy in Chinese patients.

Dosing regimen optimisation for oseltamivir in immunocompromised paediatric patients with influenza: Extrapolation of efficacy.

Aims: To optimise the dosing regimen of oseltamivir for immunocompromised (IC) paediatric patients (<18 years) with influenza, we used an extrapolation approach alongside clinical data.

Methods: Efficacy was extrapolated from adult IC patients to paediatric IC patients by leveraging existing efficacy, safety, pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD), and disease-progression models of oseltamivir and oseltamivir carboxylate (OC). Data of IC paediatric patients from two studies (NV25719 and NV20234) were included in the population PK (n = 30), PK/PD analysis (n = 22) and disease modelling approach (n = 36).