Is San Diego California on Track to Reach HCV Elimination? A Modeling Analysis of Combination Prevention Strategies.

In 2020, the in the county of San Diego (COSD) was launched, a private-public joint endeavor between the COSD and the American Liver Foundation. We use epidemic modeling to assess whether the COSD is on track to reach its elimination targets (80% reduction in incidence, 65% reduction in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related mortality by 2030 compared to 2015) and what intervention scale-up may be required. We adapted a previously developed dynamic, deterministic model of HCV transmission and disease progression among adults in the COSD, stratified by risk, age, gender, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status.

The estimated hepatitis C seroprevalence and key population sizes in San Diego in 2018.

Background: The Eliminate Hepatitis C San Diego County Initiative was established to provide a roadmap to reduce new HCV infections by 80% and HCV-related deaths by 65% by 2030. An estimate of the burden of HCV infections in San Diego County is necessary to inform planning and evaluation efforts. Our analysis was designed to estimate the HCV burden in San Diego County in 2018.