Projecting the effects of agricultural conservation practices on stream fish communities in a changing climate.

How anticipated climate change might affect long-term outcomes of present-day agricultural conservation practices remains a key uncertainty that could benefit water quality and biodiversity conservation planning. To explore this issue, we forecasted how the stream fish communities in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) would respond to increasing amounts of agricultural conservation practice (ACP) implementation under two IPCC future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5: moderate reductions; RCP8.

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios.

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios.

Riverine threat indices to assess watershed condition and identify primary management capacity of agriculture natural resource management agencies.

Managers can improve conservation of lotic systems over large geographies if they have tools to assess total watershed conditions for individual stream segments and can identify segments where conservation practices are most likely to be successful (i.e., primary management capacity).

Linking biological integrity and watershed models to assess the impacts of historical land use and climate changes on stream health.

Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection.

Joint analysis of stressors and ecosystem services to enhance restoration effectiveness.

With increasing pressure placed on natural systems by growing human populations, both scientists and resource managers need a better understanding of the relationships between cumulative stress from human activities and valued ecosystem services. Societies often seek to mitigate threats to these services through large-scale, costly restoration projects, such as the over one billion dollar Great Lakes Restoration Initiative currently underway. To help inform these efforts, we merged high-resolution spatial analyses of environmental stressors with mapping of ecosystem services for all five Great Lakes.

Modeling the effects of conservation practices on stream health.

Anthropogenic activities such as agricultural practices can have large effects on the ecological components and overall health of stream ecosystems. Therefore, having a better understanding of those effects and relationships allows for better design of mitigating strategies. The objectives of this study were to identify influential stream variables that correlate with macroinvertebrate indices using biophysical and statistical models.

Riparian shading and groundwater enhance growth potential for smallmouth bass in Ozark streams.

Moderation of stream temperatures by riparian shading and groundwater are known to promote growth and survival of salmonid fishes, but effects of riparian shade and groundwater on to be growth of warmwater stream fishes are poorly understood or assumed to be negligible. We used stream temperature models to relate shading from riparian vegetation and groundwater inflow to summer water temperatures in Missouri Ozark streams and evaluated effects of summer water temperatures on smallmouth bass, Micropterus dolomieu, growth using a bioenergetics model. Bioenergetics model simulations revealed that adult smallmouth bass in non-spring-fed streams have lower growth potential during summer than fish in spring-fed streams, are subject to mass loss when stream temperatures exceed 27 degrees C, and will likely exhibit greater interannual variation in growth during summer if all growth-influencing factors, other than temperature, are identical between the two stream types.

Influence of targets and assessment region size on perceived conservation priorities.

We used an existing conservation opportunity area (OA) data layer for four contiguous ecological subsections within the Ozark Highlands to quantitatively evaluate the influence of conservation targets and assessment region size on conservation priorities. OAs are natural and seminatural land-cover patches that are away from roads and away from patch edges. To evaluate the influence of targets, we assigned a priority score to each OA polygon for each of five different conservation targets, including land-cover patch size, landform representation, target vertebrate richness, target breeding bird richness, and target land cover.