Agent-based models under uncertainty.

Background: Monte Carlo (MC) is often used when trying to assess the consequences of uncertainty in agent-based models (ABMs). However, this approach is not appropriate when the uncertainty is epistemic rather than aleatory, that is, when it represents a lack of knowledge rather than variation. The free-for-all battleship simulation modelled here is inspired by the children's battleship game, where each battleship is an agent.

Neural network model for imprecise regression with interval dependent variables.

This paper presents a computationally feasible method to compute rigorous bounds on the interval-generalization of regression analysis to account for epistemic uncertainty in the output variables. The new iterative method uses machine learning algorithms to fit an imprecise regression model to data that consist of intervals rather than point values. The method is based on a single-layer interval neural network which can be trained to produce an interval prediction.

Belongingness challenged: Exploring the impact on older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objectives: The sense of belonging is a fundamental human need. Enacting it through face-to-face social activities was no longer possible during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we investigate how the sense of belonging, and how it is enacted, changed longitudinally amongst older adults in the UK.

Is Protecting Older Adults from COVID-19 Ageism? A Comparative Cross-cultural Constructive Grounded Theory from the United Kingdom and Colombia.

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted people's lives all over the world, requiring health and safety measures intended to stop the virus from spreading. This study explores whether an unintended consequence of these measures is a new form of ageism. We explore, using qualitative methods, the experiences of older adults living through the pandemic in the United Kingdom and Colombia.

Correction: Is no test better than a bad test: Impact of diagnostic uncertainty on the spread of COVID-19.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.

Is "no test is better than a bad test"? Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of COVID-19.

Testing is viewed as a critical aspect of any strategy to tackle epidemics. Much of the dialogue around testing has concentrated on how countries can scale up capacity, but the uncertainty in testing has not received nearly as much attention beyond asking if a test is accurate enough to be used. Even for highly accurate tests, false positives and false negatives will accumulate as mass testing strategies are employed under pressure, and these misdiagnoses could have major implications on the ability of governments to suppress the virus.

Comparative, collaborative, and integrative risk governance for emerging technologies.

Various emerging technologies challenge existing governance processes to identify, assess, and manage risk. Though the existing risk-based paradigm has been essential for assessment of many chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear technologies, a complementary approach may be warranted for the early-stage assessment and management challenges of high uncertainty technologies ranging from nanotechnology to synthetic biology to artificial intelligence, among many others. This paper argues for a risk governance approach that integrates quantitative experimental information alongside qualitative expert insight to characterize and balance the risks, benefits, costs, and societal implications of emerging technologies.

Ecological risk assessment for mink and short-tailed shrew exposed to PCBs, dioxins, and furans in the Housatonic River area.

A probabilistic risk assessment was conducted to characterize risks to a representative piscivorous mammal (mink, Mustela vison) and a representative carnivorous mammal (short-tailed shrew, Blarina brevicauda) exposed to PCBs, dioxins, and furans in the Housatonic River area downstream of the General Electric (GE) facility in Pittsfield, Massachusetts. Contaminant exposure was estimated using a probabilistic total daily intake model and parameterized using life history information of each species and concentrations of PCBs, dioxins, and furans in prey collected in the Housatonic River study area. The effects assessment preferentially relied on dose-response curves but defaulted to benchmarks or other estimates of effect when there were insufficient toxicity data.

Accounting for uncertainty in DNA sequencing data.

Science is defined in part by an honest exposition of the uncertainties that arise in measurements and propagate through calculations and inferences, so that the reliabilities of its conclusions are made apparent. The recent rapid development of high-throughput DNA sequencing technologies has dramatically increased the number of measurements made at the biochemical and molecular level. These data come from many different DNA-sequencing technologies, each with their own platform-specific errors and biases, which vary widely.

Evolved altruism, strong reciprocity, and perception of risk.

Humans have a long history of coping with particular recurring risks. We expect natural selection to have resulted in specific physiological and psychological adaptations that respond well to these risks. Why, then, does it seem so difficult to communicate risk? We suggest that the human mind has been structured by natural selection to use a mental calculus for reckoning uncertainty and making decisions in the face of risk that can be substantially different from probability theory, propositional calculus (logic), or economic rationality (utility maximization).

A frequency/consequence-based technique for visualizing and communicating uncertainty and perception of risk.

This chapter presents an approach under development for communicating uncertainty regarding risk. The approach relies on a risk imaging technology that decomposes risk into two basic elements: (i) the frequency of each kind of harm associated with a hazard and (ii) the adversity of each of those harms. Because different kinds of harm are often measured along incompatible dimensions, adversity is quantified on an ordinal scale.

Strategies for risk communication: evolution, evidence, experience.

This volume presents the proceedings of the symposium entitled Strategies for Risk Communication: Evolution, Evidence, Experience. The symposium was held in Montauk, Long Island, New York on May 15-17, 2006. It explored practical methods and robust theories of risk communication informed by recent research in risk perception, neuroscience, and the evolutionary social sciences.

Comparison of deterministic and probabilistic calculation of ecological soil screening levels.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.