The use of scenario tree models in support of animal health surveillance: A scoping review.

Background: Scenario tree modelling is a well-known method used to evaluate the confidence of freedom from infection or to assess the sensitivity of a surveillance system in detecting an infection at a certain design prevalence. It facilitates the use of data from various sources and the inclusion of risk factors into calculations, while still obtaining quantitative estimates of surveillance sensitivity and probability of freedom.

Objectives: We conducted a scoping review to identify scenario tree models (STMs) applied to assess freedom from infection in veterinary medicine, characterize their use, parameterisation, reporting and potential limitations.

Study of the Interface between Wild Bird Populations and Poultry and Their Potential Role in the Spread of Avian Influenza.

Water birds play a crucial role in disseminating and amplifying avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in the environment. However, they may have limited interactions with domestic facilities, raising the hypothesis that other wild birds may play the bridging role in introducing AIVs into poultry. An ornithocoenosis study, based on census-transect and camera-trapping methods, was conducted in 2019 in ten poultry premises in northeast Italy to characterize the bird communities and envisage the species that might act as bridge hosts for AIVs.

An integrated system for the management of environmental data to support veterinary epidemiology.

Environmental and climatic fluctuations can greatly influence the dynamics of infectious diseases of veterinary concern, or interfere with the implementation of relevant control measures. Including environmental and climatic aspects in epidemiological studies could provide policy makers with new insights to assign resources for measures to prevent or limit the spread of animal diseases, particularly those with zoonotic potential. The ever-increasing number of technologies and tools permits acquiring environmental data from various sources, including ground-based sensors and Satellite Earth Observation (SEO).

Integration of Epidemiological and Genomic Data to Investigate H5N1 HPAI Outbreaks in Northern Italy in 2021-2022.

Between October 2021 and April 2022, 317 outbreaks caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses were notified in poultry farms in the northeastern Italian regions. The complete genomes of 214 strains were used to estimate the genetic network based on the similarity of the viruses. An exponential random graph model (ERGM) was used to assess the effect of 'at-risk contacts', 'same owners', 'in-bound/out-bound risk windows overlap', 'genetic differences', 'geographic distances', 'same species', and 'poultry company' on the probability of observing a link within the genetic network, which can be interpreted as the potential propagation of the epidemic via lateral spread or a common source of infection.

Different environmental gradients associated to the spatiotemporal and genetic pattern of the H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Italy.

Comprehensive understanding of the patterns and drivers of avian influenza outbreaks is pivotal to inform surveillance systems and heighten nations' ability to quickly detect and respond to the emergence of novel viruses. Starting in early 2017, the Italian poultry sector has been involved in the massive H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic that spread in the majority of the European countries in 2016/2017. Eighty-three outbreaks were recorded in north-eastern Italy, where a densely populated poultry area stretches along the Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto regions.

Spatiotemporal reconstruction and transmission dynamics during the 2016-17 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Italy.

Effective control of avian diseases in domestic populations requires understanding of the transmission dynamics facilitating viral emergence and spread. In 2016-17, Italy experienced a significant avian influenza epidemic caused by a highly pathogenic A(H5N8) virus, which affected domestic premises housing around 2.7 million birds, primarily in the north-eastern regions with the highest density of poultry farms (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto).

Integration of genetic and epidemiological data to infer H5N8 HPAI virus transmission dynamics during the 2016-2017 epidemic in Italy.

Between October 2016 and December 2017, several European Countries had been involved in a massive Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) epidemic sustained by H5N8 subtype virus. Starting on December 2016, also Italy was affected by H5N8 HPAI virus, with cases occurring in two epidemic waves: the first between December 2016 and May 2017, and the second in July-December 2017. Eighty-three outbreaks were recorded in poultry, 67 of which (80.

AMS assessment of U-contamination of structural materials of the Garigliano NPP under decommissioning.

The assessment of the radiological impact of decommissioning activities at a Nuclear Power Plant requires a detailed mapping of the distribution of radionuclides both in the environment surrounding the NPP and in its structural material. The detection of long-lived actinide isotopes and possibly the identification of their origin is particularly interesting and valuable if ultrasensitive measurement of the relative abundance of U isotopes is performed via Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS). In this paper we present an investigation carried out on the structural materials of the Garigliano NPP aiming to determine the abundance of U in the various compartments of the plant buildings under decommissioning.

Principal climatic and edaphic determinants of Culicoides biting midge abundance during the 2007-2008 bluetongue epidemic in the Netherlands, based on OVI light trap data.

Palaearctic Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) represent a vital link in the northward advance of certain arboviral pathogens of livestock such as that caused by bluetongue virus. The effects of relevant ecological factors on weekly Culicoides vector abundances during the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemics in the Netherlands in 2007 and 2008 were quantified within a hurdle modelling framework. The relative role of meteorological parameters showed a broadly consistent association across species, with larger catches linked to temperature-related variables and lower wind speed.

The Mondrian matrix: Culicoides biting midge abundance and seasonal incidence during the 2006-2008 epidemic of bluetongue in the Netherlands.

During the northern Europe epidemic of bluetongue (BT), Onderstepoort-type blacklight traps were used to capture Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges weekly between November 2006 and December 2008 on 21 livestock farms in the Netherlands. Proven and potential vectors for the bluetongue virus (BTV) comprised almost 80% of the midges collected: the Obsoletus complex, constituting C. obsoletus (Meigen) and C.

Risk factor analysis for antibodies to Brucella, Leptospira and C. burnetii among cattle in the Adamawa Region of Cameroon: a cross-sectional study.

Brucellosis, leptospirosis and Q fever are important livestock diseases, commonly responsible for significant production losses, yet their epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa is largely unknown. Animal reservoirs pose the main risk of transmission to humans, where serious disease can occur. In the developing world setting, the flu-like symptoms of the acute stages of these diseases can be misdiagnosed as malaria, which can result in the administration of the wrong treatment, prolonged disease and increase in antibiotic resistance.

Questionnaire survey about the motives of commercial livestock farmers and hobby holders to vaccinate their animals against Bluetongue virus serotype 8 in 2008-2009 in the Netherlands.

After a massive epidemic of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) among ruminants in 2006-2007 in the European Union (EU), the Netherlands started a voluntary emergency vaccination campaign in May 2008, subsidized by the EU. At the start of a new campaign in 2009, without subsidized vaccination, we investigated by mail survey the motives of farmers and hobby holders to vaccinate against BTV-8 in 2008 and 2009. Mean vaccine uptake in 2008 was: 73% in sheep, 71% in cattle, 43% in goat farms and 67% in hobby holdings.

Serological patterns of brucellosis, leptospirosis and Q fever in Bos indicus cattle in Cameroon.

Brucellosis, leptospirosis and Q fever are important infections of livestock causing a range of clinical conditions including abortions and reduced fertility. In addition, they are all important zoonotic infections infecting those who work with livestock and those who consume livestock related products such as milk, producing non-specific symptoms including fever, that are often misdiagnosed and that can lead to severe chronic disease. This study used banked sera from the Adamawa Region of Cameroon to investigate the seroprevalences and distributions of seropositive animals and herds.