Inferring transmission routes for foot-and-mouth disease virus within a cattle herd using approximate Bayesian computation.

To control an outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to understand the different routes of transmission and how they contribute to the overall spread of the pathogen. With this information, policy makers can choose the most efficient methods of detection and control during an outbreak. Here we assess the contributions of direct contact and environmental contamination to the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in a cattle herd using an individual-based model that includes both routes.

The role of Type I interferons in the pathogenesis of foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle: A mathematical modelling analysis.

Type I interferons (IFN) are the first line of immune response against infection. In this study, we explore the interaction between Type I IFN and foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), focusing on the effect of this interaction on epithelial cell death. While several mathematical models have explored the interaction between interferon and viruses at a systemic level, with most of the work undertaken on influenza and hepatitis C, these cannot investigate why a virus such as FMDV causes extensive cell death in some epithelial tissues leading to the development of lesions, while other infected epithelial tissues exhibit negligible cell death.

Control of Brucella melitensis in endemic settings: A simulation study in the Nile Delta, Egypt.

Small ruminant brucellosis remains endemic in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where it poses a major economic and public health burden. Lack of resources to support long-term vaccination, inherent characteristics of small ruminant production systems such as mixing of different flocks for grazing and limitations of the vaccines currently available, which can induce abortion in pregnant animals, have all hindered the effectiveness of control programmes. In the current study, the likely effect of different control scenarios on the seroprevalence of brucellosis among the small ruminant population in a hypothetical area of an endemic region was simulated using compartmental models.

Competing theories of multialternative, multiattribute preferential choice.

In accounting for phenomena present in preferential choice experiments, modern models assume a wide array of different mechanisms such as lateral inhibition, leakage, loss aversion, and saliency. These mechanisms create interesting predictions for the dynamics of the deliberation process as well as the aggregate behavior of preferential choice in a variety of contexts. However, the models that embody these different mechanisms are rarely subjected to rigorous quantitative tests of suitability by way of model fitting and evaluation.

Improving numeracy through values affirmation enhances decision and STEM outcomes.

Greater numeracy has been correlated with better health and financial outcomes in past studies, but causal effects in adults are unknown. In a 9-week longitudinal study, undergraduate students, all taking a psychology statistics course, were randomly assigned to a control condition or a values-affirmation manipulation intended to improve numeracy. By the final week in the course, the numeracy intervention (statistics-course enrollment combined with values affirmation) enhanced objective numeracy, subjective numeracy, and two decision-related outcomes (financial literacy and health-related behaviors).

The anchor integration model: A descriptive model of anchoring effects.

Few experimental effects in the psychology of judgment and decision making have been studied as meticulously as the anchoring effect. Although the existing literature provides considerable insight into the psychological processes underlying anchoring effects, extant theories up to this point have only generated qualitative predictions. While these theories have been productive in advancing our understanding of the underlying anchoring process, they leave much to be desired in the interpretation of specific anchoring effects.

Thermal inactivation of foot and mouth disease virus in extruded pet food.

The risk of importing foot and mouth disease, a highly contagious viral disease of livestock, severely restricts trade and investment opportunities in many developing countries where the virus is present. This study was designed to investigate the inactivation of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) by heat treatments used in extruded commercial pet food manufacture. If extrusion could be shown to reliably inactivate the virus, this could potentially facilitate trade for FMDV-endemic countries.

Using Mathematical Modelling to Explore Hypotheses about the Role of Bovine Epithelium Structure in Foot-And-Mouth Disease Virus-Induced Cell Lysis.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. FMD virus (FMDV) shows a strong tropism for epithelial cells, and FMD is characterised by cell lysis and the development of vesicular lesions in certain epithelial tissues (for example, the tongue). By contrast, other epithelial tissues do not develop lesions, despite being sites of viral replication (for example, the dorsal soft palate).

Assessing "economic value": symbolic-number mappings predict risky and riskless valuations.

Diminishing marginal utility (DMU) is a basic tenet of economic and psychological models of judgment and choice, but its determinants are little understood. In the research reported here, we tested whether insensitivities in valuations of dollar amounts (e.g.

Arenavirus budding resulting from viral-protein-associated cell membrane curvature.

Viral replication occurs within cells, with release (and onward infection) primarily achieved through two alternative mechanisms: lysis, in which virions emerge as the infected cell dies and bursts open; or budding, in which virions emerge gradually from a still living cell by appropriating a small part of the cell membrane. Virus budding is a poorly understood process that challenges current models of vesicle formation. Here, a plausible mechanism for arenavirus budding is presented, building on recent evidence that viral proteins embed in the inner lipid layer of the cell membrane.

Within-group contact of cattle in dairy barns and the implications for disease transmission.

The prevention, control and reduction of livestock diseases require a good understanding of how the underlying causative agents are transmitted. On livestock premises the rate of spread is strongly determined by the contact, both direct and indirect, between infectious and susceptible individuals. Here we consider contact amongst barn-housed dairy cattle, one of the most important UK livestock sectors.

A new measure of interpersonal exploitativeness.

Measures of exploitativeness evidence problems with validity and reliability. The present set of studies assessed a new measure [the Interpersonal Exploitativeness Scale (IES)] that defines exploitativeness in terms of reciprocity. In Studies 1 and 2, 33 items were administered to participants.

Direct observation of membrane insertion by enveloped virus matrix proteins by phosphate displacement.

Enveloped virus release is driven by poorly understood proteins that are functional analogs of the coat protein assemblies that mediate intracellular vesicle trafficking. We used differential electron density mapping to detect membrane integration by membrane-bending proteins from five virus families. This demonstrates that virus matrix proteins replace an unexpectedly large portion of the lipid content of the inner membrane face, a generalized feature likely to play a role in reshaping cellular membranes.

Protective measures, personal experience, and the affective psychology of time.

We examined the role of time and affect in intentions to purchase a risk-protective measure (Studies 1 and 2) and explored participant abilities to factor time into the likelihood judgments that presumably underlie such intentions (Study 3). Participants worried more about losing their possessions and were more likely to purchase a protective measure given a longer term lease than a short-term lease, but only if their belongings were described in affect-poor terms. If described instead as being particularly special and affect-rich, participants neglected time and were about equally likely to purchase a risk-protective measure for shorter and longer term leases.

Interdisciplinary approaches to zoonotic disease.

Zoonotic infections are on the increase worldwide, but most research into the biological, environmental and life science aspects of these infections has been conducted in separation. In this review we bring together contemporary research in these areas to suggest a new, symbiotic framework which recognises the interaction of biological, economic, psychological, and natural and built environmental drivers in zoonotic infection and transmission. In doing so, we propose that some contemporary debates in zoonotic research could be resolved using an expanded framework which explicitly takes into account the combination of motivated and habitual human behaviour, environmental and biological constraints, and their interactions.

Modelling the influence of foot-and-mouth disease vaccine antigen stability and dose on the bovine immune response.

Foot and mouth disease virus causes a livestock disease of significant global socio-economic importance. Advances in its control and eradication depend critically on improvements in vaccine efficacy, which can be best achieved by better understanding the complex within-host immunodynamic response to inoculation. We present a detailed and empirically parametrised dynamical mathematical model of the hypothesised immune response in cattle, and explore its behaviour with reference to a variety of experimental observations relating to foot and mouth immunology.

Models to capture the potential for disease transmission in domestic sheep flocks.

Successful control of livestock diseases requires an understanding of how they spread amongst animals and between premises. Mathematical models can offer important insight into the dynamics of disease, especially when built upon experimental and/or field data. Here the dynamics of a range of epidemiological models are explored in order to determine which models perform best in capturing real-world heterogeneities at sufficient resolution.

Relationship between clinical signs and transmission of an infectious disease and the implications for control.

Control of many infectious diseases relies on the detection of clinical cases and the isolation, removal, or treatment of cases and their contacts. The success of such "reactive" strategies is influenced by the fraction of transmission occurring before signs appear. We performed experimental studies of foot-and-mouth disease transmission in cattle and estimated this fraction at less than half the value expected from detecting virus in body fluids, the standard proxy measure of infectiousness.

The role of context in risky choice.

Human choice behavior was assessed in a concurrent-chain schedule, where two equal initial links (IL) each led to a distinct terminal-link (TL). One TL was associated with a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement, while the other was associated with a bi-valued mixed ratio schedule of reinforcement, whose arithmetic mean equaled the Fixed TL schedule. The fixed component (FR50; FR25; FR5) was arranged to be equal to the alternative mixed component in each condition (FR1/99; FR1/49; FR1/9), and choice behavior was measured by proportion of responses to each IL.

Modelling foot-and-mouth disease virus dynamics in oral epithelium to help identify the determinants of lysis.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes an economically important disease of cloven-hoofed livestock; of interest here is the difference in lytic behaviour that is observed in bovine epithelium. On the skin around the feet and tongue, the virus rapidly replicates, killing cells, and resulting in growing lesions, before eventually being cleared by the immune response. In contrast, there is usually minimal lysis in the soft palate, but virus may persist in tissue long after the animal has recovered from the disease.

Quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot-and-mouth disease.

The maintenance of disease-free status from Foot-and-Mouth Disease is of significant socio-economic importance to countries such as the UK. The imposition of bans on the movement of susceptible livestock following the discovery of an outbreak is deemed necessary to prevent the spread of what is a highly contagious disease, but has a significant economic impact on the agricultural community in itself. Here we consider the risk of applying movement restrictions only in localised zones around outbreaks in order to help evaluate how quickly nation-wide restrictions could be lifted after notification.

The effect of vaccination on undetected persistence of foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle herds and sheep flocks.

The importance of carrier animals (those in whom virus persists after recovery from disease or acute infection) and their potential role in the spread of disease remain open questions within foot-and-mouth disease epidemiology. Using simple probabilistic models we attempt to quantify the effect of emergency vaccination--and especially the time of application--on the likely number of such animals, using data from challenge experiments on both cattle and sheep to determine the probability of persistence in diseased and subclinically infected animals. We show that the number of persistently infected animals in a group is predominantly determined by the number of animals initially infected on premises--the high variability of which ultimately limits the accuracy of any predictions of carrier numbers based upon transmission models.

WITHDRAWN: Foot-and-mouth disease: How much airborne virus do animals exhale?

This article has been withdrawn at the request of the Editor. The Publisher apologizes for any inconvenience this may cause. The full Elsevier Policy on Article Withdrawal can be found at http://www.

Predicting infection risk of airborne foot-and-mouth disease.

Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals, the control and eradication of which is of significant worldwide socio-economic importance. The virus may spread by direct contact between animals or via fomites as well as through airborne transmission, with the latter being the most difficult to control. Here, we consider the risk of infection to flocks or herds from airborne virus emitted from a known infected premises.