Stepwise updating of probabilities is neither universal nor fully explained by motor costs.

Often our expectations are set by sampling many times from the same distribution. When that distribution changes, so should our expectations. If we want to decide whether to take our umbrella today we need to have tracked, and updated, our estimate of the probability of rain by reference to recent temperatures and precipitation.

[Spontaneous occurrence of a factor VIII inhibitor in glomerulonephritis and immunoglobulin a deficiency].

A 24-year-old patient with isolated IgA deficiency and a 3-year history of minimal change glomerulonephritis with nephrotic syndrome developed acute hemorrhagic diathesis. A spontaneous inhibitor of factor VIII was diagnosed. Therapy with substitution and plasmapheresis was without prolonged effect.

[Clinical picture, differential diagnosis, and conservative therapy of biliary obstruction (author's transl)].

The history, clinical picture, and laboratory values are clues in the diagnosis of biliary obstruction. The next diagnostic procedure for the differentiation between intra- and extrahepatic obstruction is an ultrasound study. Bile duct dilatation, cholelithiasis, hydrops, and empyema can be detected quickly and reliably.

[Hodgkin's disease, stage IVb: survival for 12 years (author's transl)].

Long survival in Hodgkin's disease after diagnosis of the stage IVb is very rare. A 45-years old woman is reported on, who survived for 12 years after detection of Hodgkin's disease involving lymph node regions on both sides of the diaphragm, bone, and lung parenchyma, including night sweats and weight loss (stage IVb according to the Ann Arbor classification 1971). This unexpectedly favorable course is possibly due to a so-called host resistance.

[Collagen disease with pure red cell anemia and perimembraneous glomerulonephritis (author's transl)].

Record on a case of collagen disease with pure red cell anemia and perimembraneous glomerulonephritis. The direct antiglobulin tests with anti-IgG and anti-kappaserum were positive as were the tests on antinuclear serum-antibodies. During therapy with fluocortolon and azathioprin the anemia remitted completely even when therapy was stopped.

[Carcinoma of the pancreas: clinical signs and diagnostic procedures (author's transl)].

The patients seen at the medical clinic of a community hospital over 6 years included 291 with diseases of the pancreas, 52 of whom had carcinoma of the pancreas. Their signs and symptoms are listed. The triad of weight loss, icterus, and abdominal pain was the commonest symptom cluster.