The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic sea ice, and Arctic jet Rossby wave forcing.

We use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) coupled and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) climate models, dynamical analyses, and observations to investigate interactions between summer Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) variations and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). Observations suggest that SIC-SNAO relationships mainly come from the East Siberian to Arctic Canada (ESAC) region where a weak atmospheric jet stream exists in summer. Twelve CMIP6 models with the most realistic atmospheric climatologies over the North Atlantic and Europe agree well with reanalyses on relationships between SIC and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation.

Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022.

Skilful predictions of near-term climate extremes are key to a resilient society. However, standard methods of analysing seasonal forecasts are not optimised to identify the rarer and most impactful extremes. For example, standard tercile probability maps, used in real-time regional climate outlooks, failed to convey the extreme magnitude of summer 2022 Pakistan rainfall that was, in fact, widely predicted by seasonal forecasts.

Likelihood of Extreme Early Flight of Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae) Across the UK.

Myzus persicae (Sulzer, Hemiptera: Aphididae) is a major global crop pest; it is the primary aphid vector for many damaging viruses and has developed resistance to most insecticides. In temperate regions, the risk of widespread crop infection and yield loss is heightened following warm winters, which encourage rapid population growth and early flight. Estimates of the frequency and magnitude of warm winters are, therefore, helpful for understanding and managing this risk.

Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss.

The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.

Role of Atmospheric Indices in Describing Inshore Directional Wave Climate in the United Kingdom and Ireland.

Improved understanding of how our coasts will evolve over a range of time scales (years-decades) is critical for effective and sustainable management of coastal infrastructure. A robust knowledge of the spatial, directional and temporal variability of the inshore wave climate is required to predict future coastal evolution and hence vulnerability. However, the variability of the inshore directional wave climate has received little attention, and an improved understanding could drive development of skillful seasonal or decadal forecasts of coastal response.

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply.

Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, especially for precipitation, over the coming decades.

Big telescope, big data: towards exascale with the Square Kilometre Array.

Unlike optical telescopes, radio interferometers do not image the sky directly but require specialized image formation algorithms. For the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), the computational requirements of this image formation are extremely demanding due to the huge data rates produced by the telescope. This processing will be performed by the SKA Science Data Processor facilities and a network of SKA Regional Centres, which must not only deal with SKA-scale data volumes but also with stringent science-driven image fidelity requirements.

Predictability of European winter 2016/2017.

Winter 2016/2017 was one of the driest on record for central Europe and the United Kingdom. This was the result of blocked atmospheric circulation with high pressure centred over North-West Europe dominating the winter mean circulation pattern. Using large ensembles of simulated winters, we find that the observed winter 2016/2017 circulation was very similar in pattern and strength to the circulation associated with the top 10% of driest Central European winters.

A radio ridge connecting two galaxy clusters in a filament of the cosmic web.

Galaxy clusters are the most massive gravitationally bound structures in the Universe. They grow by accreting smaller structures in a merging process that produces shocks and turbulence in the intracluster gas. We observed a ridge of radio emission connecting the merging galaxy clusters Abell 0399 and Abell 0401 with the Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR) telescope network at 140 megahertz.

Predicting El Niño in 2014 and 2015.

Early in 2014 several forecast systems were suggesting a strong 1997/98-like El Niño event for the following northern hemisphere winter 2014/15. However the eventual outcome was a modest warming. In contrast, winter 2015/16 saw one of the strongest El Niño events on record.

Pro-inflammatory mediator responses from neonatal airway epithelial cells and early childhood wheeze.

Background: Airway epithelial cell (AEC) function differs between children with and without asthma. Here, we associated neonatal AEC function with asthma symptoms at 4 years of age.

Methods: Nasal AEC were collected from neonates within 48 h of birth.

High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate.

In winter 2013/14 a succession of storms hit the UK leading to record rainfall and flooding in many regions including south east England. In the Thames river valley there was widespread flooding, with clean-up costs of over £1 billion. There was no observational precedent for this level of rainfall.

An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation.

One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere.

Primary Paediatric Bronchial Airway Epithelial Cell in Vitro Responses to Environmental Exposures.

The bronchial airway epithelial cell (BAEC) is the site for initial encounters between inhaled environmental factors and the lower respiratory system. Our hypothesis was that release of pro inflammatory interleukins (IL)-6 and IL-8 from primary BAEC cultured from children will be increased after in vitro exposure to common environmental factors. Primary BAEC were obtained from children undergoing clinically indicated routine general anaesthetic procedures.

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes.

A future decline in solar activity would not offset projected global warmingA future decline in solar activity could have larger regional effects in winterTop-down mechanism contributes to Northern Hemisphere regional response.

A large light-mass component of cosmic rays at 10(17)-10(17.5) electronvolts from radio observations.

Cosmic rays are the highest-energy particles found in nature. Measurements of the mass composition of cosmic rays with energies of 10(17)-10(18) electronvolts are essential to understanding whether they have galactic or extragalactic sources. It has also been proposed that the astrophysical neutrino signal comes from accelerators capable of producing cosmic rays of these energies.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050.

Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models.

Unlabelled: Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends () and net downward top of atmosphere radiation () are significantly correlated ( ∼ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

Probing Atmospheric Electric Fields in Thunderstorms through Radio Emission from Cosmic-Ray-Induced Air Showers.

We present measurements of radio emission from cosmic ray air showers that took place during thunderstorms. The intensity and polarization patterns of these air showers are radically different from those measured during fair-weather conditions. With the use of a simple two-layer model for the atmospheric electric field, these patterns can be well reproduced by state-of-the-art simulation codes.

Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?

Seasonal-to-decadal predictions are inevitably uncertain, depending on the size of the predictable signal relative to unpredictable chaos. Uncertainties can be accounted for using ensemble techniques, permitting quantitative probabilistic forecasts. In a perfect system, each ensemble member would represent a potential realization of the true evolution of the climate system, and the predictable components in models and reality would be equal.

Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts.

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic and its subpolar gyre (SPG) has been shown to be predictable in climate models initialized with the concurrent ocean state. Numerous impacts over ocean and land have also been identified. Here we use three versions of the Met Office Decadal Prediction System to provide a multimodel ensemble forecast of the SPG and related impacts.