Probabilistic Approach to COVID-19 Data Analysis and Forecasting Future Outbreaks Using a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network.

The present outbreak of COVID-19 is a worldwide calamity for healthcare infrastructures. On a daily basis, a fresh batch of perplexing datasets on the numbers of positive and negative cases, individuals admitted to hospitals, mortality, hospital beds occupied, ventilation shortages, and so on is published. Infections have risen sharply in recent weeks, corresponding with the discovery of a new variant from South Africa (B.

Statistical analysis of forecasting COVID-19 for upcoming month in Pakistan.

In this paper, we have conducted analysis based on data obtained from National Institute of Health (NIH) - Islamabad and produced a forecast of COVID-19 confirmed cases as well as the number of deaths and recoveries in Pakistan using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). The fitted forecasting models revealed high exponential growth in the number of confirmed cases, deaths and recoveries in Pakistan. Based on our model prediction the number of confirmed cases will be increased by 2.