Modelling pollutants transport scenarios based on the X-Press Pearl disaster.

The MV X-Press Pearl accident near Sri Lanka in May 2021 released several pollutants into the ocean, including 1843.3 t of urea, raising concerns about the impact on the region. This study uses a coupled ocean (NEMO)-biogeochemistry (ERSEM) model to simulate urea dispersion under various scenarios.

Modelling terrigenous DOC across the north west European Shelf: Fate of riverine input and impact on air-sea CO fluxes.

Terrigenous carbon in aquatic systems is increasingly recognised as an important part of the global carbon cycle. Despite this, the fate and distribution of terrigenous dissolved organic carbon (tDOC) in coastal and oceanic systems is poorly understood. We have implemented a theoretical framework for the degradation of tDOC across the land to ocean continuum in a 3D hydrodynamical-biogeochemical model on the North West European Shelf.

Recommendation to update the British Society for Cutaneous Allergy corticosteroid series.

Background: Patch testing is an important investigation when dermatitis is unresponsive to, or worsened by, topical corticosteroid treatment. There is a balance to be struck between testing too many allergens, which is expensive, time consuming and risks causing sensitization, and testing too few, which risks missing the diagnosis. The current British Society for Cutaneous Allergy (BSCA) corticosteroid series comprises eight allergens and was last updated in February 2007.

Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator-prey population distributions by 2050.

Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator-prey overlap in 2050 under the "business-as-usual, worst-case" climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels).

Bayesian joint models with INLA exploring marine mobile predator-prey and competitor species habitat overlap.

Understanding spatial physical habitat selection driven by competition and/or predator-prey interactions of mobile marine species is a fundamental goal of spatial ecology. However, spatial counts or density data for highly mobile animals often (1) include excess zeros, (2) have spatial correlation, and (3) have highly nonlinear relationships with physical habitat variables, which results in the need for complex joint spatial models. In this paper, we test the use of Bayesian hierarchical hurdle and zero-inflated joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), to fit complex joint models to spatial patterns of eight mobile marine species (grey seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black-legged kittiwake, northern gannet, herring, and sandeels).

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean.

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification.