Machine learning models for temporally precise lapse prediction in alcohol use disorder.

We developed three machine learning models that predict hour-by-hour probabilities of a future lapse back to alcohol use with increasing temporal precision (i.e., lapses in the next week, next day, and next hour).

Alcohol's effects during uncertain and uncontrollable stressors in the laboratory.

Alcohol's effects on reactivity to stressors depends on the nature of the stressor and the reactivity being assessed. Research identifying characteristics of stressors that modulate reactivity and clarifies the neurobehavioral, cognitive, and affective components of this reactivity may help prevent, reduce or treat the negative impacts of acute and chronic alcohol use with implications for other psychopathology involving maladaptive reactivity to stressors. We used a novel, multi-measure, cued electric shock stressor paradigm in a greater university community sample of adult recreational drinkers to test how alcohol (N=64), compared to No-alcohol (N=64), effects reactivity to stressors that vary in both their perceived certainty and controllability.

Prospective Prediction of Lapses in Opioid Use Disorder: Protocol for a Personal Sensing Study.

Background: Successful long-term recovery from opioid use disorder (OUD) requires continuous lapse risk monitoring and appropriate use and adaptation of recovery-supportive behaviors as lapse risk changes. Available treatments often fail to support long-term recovery by failing to account for the dynamic nature of long-term recovery.

Objective: The aim of this protocol paper is to describe research that aims to develop a highly contextualized lapse risk prediction model that forecasts the ongoing probability of lapse.

Stress Allostasis in Substance Use Disorders: Promise, Progress, and Emerging Priorities in Clinical Research.

Clinicians and researchers alike have long believed that stressors play a pivotal etiologic role in risk, maintenance, and/or relapse of alcohol and other substance use disorders (SUDs). Numerous seminal and contemporary theories on SUD etiology posit that stressors may motivate drug use and that individuals who use drugs chronically may display altered responses to stressors. We use foundational basic stress biology research as a lens through which to evaluate critically the available evidence to support these key stress-SUD theses in humans.

Nonmedical prescription stimulant users experience subjective but not objective impairments in attention and impulsivity.

Background And Objectives: Nonmedical prescription stimulant use is frequently reported by college students to improve academic performance, yet it is unknown whether users truly experience cognitive impairments that may drive use. This research compared students with at least one report of nonmedical prescription stimulant use and nonusers on both self-report and objective measures of inattention and impulsivity.

Methods: Two studies examined inattention (N = 155) and impulsivity (N = 115) among college students.

Public health in the field and the emergency operations center: methods for implementing real-time onsite syndromic surveillance at large public events.

Objective: To develop an onsite syndromic surveillance system for the early detection of public health emergencies and outbreaks at large public events.

Methods: As the third largest public health jurisdiction in the United States, Maricopa County Department of Public Health has worked with academic and first-response partners to create an event-targeted syndromic surveillance (EVENTSS) system. This system complements long-standing traditional emergency department-based surveillance and provides public health agencies with rapid reporting of possible clusters of illness.

Evaluation of a hepatitis A immunization program.

Background: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a hepatitis A vaccine requirement targeted at child-care center attendees 2-5 years of age in Maricopa County, AZ. A case-control study conducted before implementation in 1997 found that individuals with hepatitis A were 6 times more likely to have worked in or attended a child-care center than were matched controls, and 40% of hepatitis A cases were attributable to attending or working in a child-care center.

Methods: A case-control study was conducted postimplementation in 1999.

The validity of chief complaint and discharge diagnosis in emergency department-based syndromic surveillance.

Objective: Emergency department (ED)-based syndromic surveillance systems are being used by public health departments to monitor for outbreaks of infectious diseases, including bioterrorism; however, few systems have been validated. The authors evaluated a "drop-in" syndromic surveillance system by comparing syndrome categorization in the ED with chief complaints and ED discharge diagnoses from medical record review.

Methods: A surveillance form was completed for each ED visit at 15 participating Arizona hospitals between October 27 and November 18, 2001.