Quantifying thermal exposure for migratory riverine species: Phenology of Chinook salmon populations predicts thermal stress.

Migratory species are particularly vulnerable to climate change because habitat throughout their entire migration cycle must be suitable for the species to persist. For migratory species in rivers, predicting climate change impacts is especially difficult because there is a lack of spatially continuous and seasonally varying stream temperature data, habitat conditions can vary for an individual throughout its life cycle, and vulnerability can vary by life stage and season. To predict thermal impacts on migratory riverine populations, we first expanded a spatial stream network model to predict mean monthly temperature for 465,775 river km in the western U.

Phenomenological vs. biophysical models of thermal stress in aquatic eggs.

Predicting species responses to climate change is a central challenge in ecology. These predictions are often based on lab-derived phenomenological relationships between temperature and fitness metrics. We tested one of these relationships using the embryonic stage of a Chinook salmon population.