flepiMoP: The evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented demand for projections of disease burden and healthcare utilization under scenarios ranging from unmitigated spread to strict social distancing policies. In response, members of the Johns Hopkins Infectious Disease Dynamics Group developed flepiMoP (formerly called the COVID Scenario Modeling Pipeline), a comprehensive open-source software pipeline designed for creating and simulating compartmental models of infectious disease transmission and inferring parameters through these models. The framework has been used extensively to produce short-term forecasts and longer-term scenario projections of COVID-19 at the state and county level in the US, for COVID-19 in other countries at various geographic scales, and more recently for seasonal influenza.

The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy.

Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to guide pandemic planning and decision-making in the context of high uncertainty. This effort was born out of an attempt to coordinate, synthesize and effectively use the unprecedented amount of predictive modeling that emerged throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we describe the history of this massive collective research effort, the process of convening and maintaining an open modeling hub active over multiple years, and attempt to provide a blueprint for future efforts.

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. Forecasting teams were asked to provide national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one through four weeks ahead for the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons. Across both seasons, 26 teams submitted forecasts, with the submitting teams varying between seasons.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.

Gut mutualists can persist in host populations despite low fidelity of vertical transmission.

Humans harbour diverse microbial communities, and this interaction has fitness consequences for hosts and symbionts. Understanding the mechanisms that preserve host-symbiont association is an important step in studying co-evolution between humans and their mutualist microbial partners. This association is promoted by vertical transmission, which is known to be imperfect.

Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. .

Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.

The role of a programmatic immune response on the evolution of pathogen traits.

In modelling pathogen evolution during epidemics, it is important to understand the interactions between within-host infection dynamics and between-host pathogen transmission. Multiscale models often assume an immune response that is highly responsive to pathogen dynamics. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that the immune response in acute infections is triggered and programmatic.

Mate guarding in primates arises due to partner scarcity, even if the father provides no paternal care at all.

Paternal care is unusual among primates; in most species males compete with one another for the acquisition of mates and leave the raising of offspring to the mothers. Callitrichids defy this trend with both fathers and older siblings contributing to the care of offspring. We extend a two-strategy population model (paternal care versus male-male competition) to account for various mechanisms that could possibly explain why male callitrichids invest in paternal care over male-male competition, and compare results from callitrichid, chimpanzee and hunter-gatherer life history parameters.

Modelling the effect of birth and feeding modes on the development of human gut microbiota.

The human gut microbiota is transmitted from mother to infant through vaginal birth and breastfeeding. , a genus that dominates the infants' gut, is adapted to breast milk in its ability to metabolize human milk oligosaccharides; it is regarded as a mutualist owing to its involvement in the development of the immune system. The composition of microbiota, including the abundance of Bifidobacteria, is highly variable between individuals and some microbial profiles are associated with diseases.

Nonsynonymous Polymorphism Counts in Bacterial Genomes: a Comparative Examination.

Genomic data reveal single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that may carry information about the evolutionary history of bacteria. However, it remains unclear what inferences about selection can be made from genomic SNP data. Bacterial species are often sampled during epidemic outbreaks or within hosts during the course of chronic infections.

Why Males Compete Rather Than Care, with an Application to Supplying Collective Goods.

The question of why males invest more into competition than offspring care is an age-old problem in evolutionary biology. On the one hand, paternal care could increase the fraction of offspring surviving to maturity. On the other hand, competition could increase the likelihood of more paternities and thus the relative number of offspring produced.

Evolution of male strategies with sex-ratio-dependent pay-offs: connecting pair bonds with grandmothering.

Men's provisioning of mates and offspring has been central to ideas about human evolution because paternal provisioning is absent in our closest evolutionary cousins, the great apes, and is widely assumed to result in pair bonding, which distinguishes us from them. Yet mathematical modelling has shown that paternal care does not readily spread in populations where competition for multiple mates is the common male strategy. Here we add to models that point to the mating sex ratio as an explanation for pairing as pay-offs to mate guarding rise with a male-biased sex ratio.

Further Mathematical Modelling of Mating Sex Ratios & Male Strategies with Special Relevance to Human Life History.

Influential models of male reproductive strategies have often ignored the importance of mate guarding, focusing instead on trade-offs between fitness gained through care for dependants in a pair bond versus fitness from continued competition for additional mates. Here we follow suggestions that mate guarding is a distinct alternative strategy that plays a crucial role, with special relevance to the evolution of our own lineage. Human pair bonding may have evolved in concert with the evolution of our grandmothering life history, which entails a shift to male-biased sex ratios in the fertile ages.