Publications by authors named "Sanjana H Bhargava"
Article Synopsis
- Policymakers face challenges in making decisions with limited information and conflicting predictions from different models, especially during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic.
- A study brought together multiple modeling teams to assess reopening strategies in a mid-sized U.S. county, revealing consistent rankings for interventions despite variations in projection magnitudes.
- The findings indicated that reopening workplaces could lead to a significant increase in infections, while restrictions could greatly reduce cumulative infections, highlighting the trade-offs between public health and economic activity with no optimal reopening strategy identified.
Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed.
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