Sequence and structure alignments in post-AlphaFold era.

Sequence alignment is fundamental for analyzing protein structure and function. For all but closely-related proteins, alignments based on structures are more accurate than alignments based purely on amino-acid sequences. However, the disparity between the large amount of sequence data and the relative paucity of experimentally-determined structures has precluded the general applicability of structure alignment.

On the reliability and the limits of inference of amino acid sequence alignments.

Motivation: Alignments are correspondences between sequences. How reliable are alignments of amino acid sequences of proteins, and what inferences about protein relationships can be drawn? Using techniques not previously applied to these questions, by weighting every possible sequence alignment by its posterior probability we derive a formal mathematical expectation, and develop an efficient algorithm for computation of the distance between alternative alignments allowing quantitative comparisons of sequence-based alignments with corresponding reference structure alignments.

Results: By analyzing the sequences and structures of 1 million protein domain pairs, we report the variation of the expected distance between sequence-based and structure-based alignments, as a function of (Markov time of) sequence divergence.