Simulating the impact of varying vegetation on West African monsoon surface fluxes using a regional convection-permitting model.

This study assessed the sensitivity of the West African climate to varying vegetation fractions. The assessment of a such relationship is critical in understanding the interactions between land surface and atmosphere. Two sets of convection-permitting simulations from the UK Met Office Unified Model at 12 km horizontal resolution covering the monsoon period May-September (MJJAS) were used, one with fixed vegetation fraction (MF-V) and the other with time-varying vegetation fraction (MV-V).

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts.

This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance-specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle-related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category.