Publications by authors named "Samuel Osorio"

Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Background: We quantify the mortality burden and economic loss attributable to nonoptimal temperatures for cold and heat in the Central and South American countries in the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network.

Methods: We collected data for 66 locations from 13 countries in Central and South America to estimate location-specific temperature-mortality associations using time-series regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We calculated the attributable deaths for cold and heat as the 2.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF
Article Synopsis
  • The study investigates how daily rainfall characteristics—like intensity, duration, and frequency—affect mortality rates from all causes, cardiovascular issues, and respiratory problems across 34 countries from 1980 to 2020.
  • It utilizes a time series analysis to evaluate the association between daily mortality and rainfall events that occur at different return periods (one, two, and five years), including the effects of extreme rainfall with a 14-day lag.
  • The results indicate that extreme rainfall events (five-year return period) correlate with increased mortality rates, particularly for respiratory cases, while moderate rainfall shows protective effects, and the impact varies based on climate and vegetation.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Background: Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries.

Methods: We collected daily temperature and mortality data from each country.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Objectives: This study aims to estimate the short-term preventable mortality and associated economic costs of complying with the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines (AQGs) limit values for PM and PM in nine major Latin American cities.

Methods: We estimated city-specific PM-mortality associations using time-series regression models and calculated the attributable mortality fraction. Next, we used the value of statistical life to calculate the economic benefits of complying with the WHO AQGs limit values.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF
Article Synopsis
  • Temperature variability (TV), both intra-day and inter-day, impacts mortality rates, but this study found intra-day variation poses a higher risk to all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.
  • Analyzing data from 758 locations over nearly 50 years, the researchers discovered that each increase in intra-day TV correlates with a greater increase in mortality risk compared to inter-day TV.
  • The study recommends further evaluations of the impacts of temperature variability on health, particularly focusing on intra-day fluctuations, which accounted for more than four times the mortality risk compared to inter-day variability.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Background: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent.

Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries.

Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM), PM ≤ 2.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Background: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations.

Objectives: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries.

Methods: Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Background: Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global setting.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale.

Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures.

Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Objective: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol.

Design: Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis.

Setting: 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Background: The health burden associated with temperature is expected to increase due to a warming climate. Populations living in cities are likely to be particularly at risk, but the role of urban characteristics in modifying the direct effects of temperature on health is still unclear. In this contribution, we used a multi-country dataset to study effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships by a range of city-specific indicators.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C". The 1.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF
Article Synopsis
  • Climate change directly influences human health by altering exposure to extreme outdoor temperatures, but data on its global effects is limited due to complex modeling challenges.
  • Researchers analyzed mortality data and temperature records from 451 locations worldwide between 1984 and 2015 to establish temperature-related mortality relationships and predict future impacts under different climate scenarios.
  • Results showed an overall net increase in temperature-related excess mortality in high-emission scenarios, yet varying geographical effects, with some temperate regions experiencing negligible or negative net effects due to reduced cold-related deaths.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Although diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a key index of climate change, few studies have reported the health burden of DTR and its temporal changes at a multi-country scale. Therefore, we assessed the attributable risk fraction of DTR on mortality and its temporal variations in a multi-country data set. We collected time-series data covering mortality and weather variables from 308 cities in 10 countries from 1972 to 2013.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF