Current distribution and potential expansion of the harmful benthic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. siamensis towards the warming waters of the Bay of Biscay, North-East Atlantic.

In a future scenario of increasing temperatures in North-Atlantic waters, the risk associated with the expansion of the harmful, benthic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. siamensis has to be evaluated and monitored. Microscopy observations and spatio-temporal surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA) were associated with Lagrangian particle dispersal simulations to: (i) establish the current colonization of the species in the Bay of Biscay, (ii) assess the spatial connectivity among sampling zones that explain this distribution, and (iii) identify the sentinel zones to monitor future expansion.