Policy impact of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team: global perspective and United Kingdom case study.

Background: Mathematical models and advanced analytics play an important role in policy decision making and mobilizing action. The Imperial College Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Response Team (ICCRT) provided continuous, timely and robust epidemiological analyses to inform the policy responses of governments and public health agencies around the world. This study aims to quantify the policy impact of ICCRT outputs, and understand which evidence was considered policy-relevant during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Outcome of Retinoblastoma After Implementation of National Retinoblastoma Treatment Guidelines in South Africa.

Purpose: Retinoblastoma, a curable childhood cancer, has been identified as a tracer cancer in the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer. To document the outcomes of children with retinoblastoma in South Africa, treated as per the first prospective standard national treatment guidelines for childhood cancer in South Africa.

Patients And Methods: All children diagnosed with retinoblastoma between 2012 and 2016 in five South African pediatric oncology units were treated with a standard treatment on the basis of the International Society of Pediatric Oncology-Pediatric Oncology in Developing Countries guidelines for high-income settings.

Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts.

Since 8th March 2020 up to the time of writing, we have been producing near real-time weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for all countries with evidence of sustained transmission, shared online. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. Here we present a retrospective evaluation of the forecasts produced between 8th March to 29th November 2020 for 81 countries.

Outcome of retinoblastoma treatment protocol in Cameroon as per SIOP-PODC recommendation for a low-income setting.

Introduction: The International Society of Paediatric Oncology-Paediatric Oncology in Developing Countries (SIOP-PODC) group recommended graduated-intensity retinoblastoma treatment for children in low- and middle-income countries with limited local resources.

Aim: The aim was to improve outcome of children with retinoblastoma by means of a treatment protocol for low-income settings as recommended by the SIOP-PODC recommendation in Cameroon.

Methods: Children diagnosed with retinoblastoma between 2012 and 2016 were treated in two Baptist Mission hospitals in Cameroon, staging according to the International Retinoblastoma Staging System.

Setting the global research agenda for community-based HIV service delivery through the faith sector.

Background: While leading AIDS organizations expect faith and health collaborations to play a crucial role in organizing and scaling up community-based HIV services, it is unclear how this can be realized. Little primary research has been conducted into which strategies for collaboration and service provision are most effective, efficient, scalable and sustainable. Seeking to align research with urgent needs, enhance coordination and increase the likelihood that results are used, this study aimed to set an inclusive global research agenda that reflects priority research questions from key stakeholders at the intersection of HIV healthcare and faith.

Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries.

Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.

After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data.

State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States.

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework.

Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China.

Objectives: In this data collation study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive database describing the epidemic trends and responses during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the main provinces in China.

Methods: From mid-January to March 2020, we extracted publicly available data regarding the spread and control of COVID-19 from 31 provincial health authorities and major media outlets in mainland China. Based on these data, we conducted descriptive analyses of the epidemic in the six most-affected provinces.

Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions.

Background: After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their "test, trace, isolate" strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea's outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere.

Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment.

: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces.

Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years.

Methods: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year.

The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries.

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower-income countries may reduce overall risk, but limited health system capacity coupled with closer intergenerational contact largely negates this benefit.

Disclosure of human immunodeficiency virus status to children in South Africa: A comprehensive analysis.

Background: The extent of disclosure of HIV status to children and adolescents and the context facilitating their disclosure process have received little attention.

Objectives: To assess disclosure and provide a comprehensive analysis of characteristics associated with disclosure to children (3-14 years) receiving antiretroviral treatment in a South African semi-urban clinic.

Methods: This cross-sectional study used structured interview administered questionnaires which were supplemented with medical record data.

Destitution, treatment adherence and survival of children with Burkitt lymphoma in a twinning programme in Northwest Cameroon.

Background: Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is a curable childhood cancer. Treatment adherence is crucial for a good outcome, but is potentially problematic in low- and middle-income countries owing to parental financial constraints.

Aims: To investigate the association of destitution with treatment adherence and its effect on the survival of patients with BL.

Off-label Use in Ambulatory Paediatric Clinics in a Central South African Hospital.

Aim: The aim of this article was to determine off-label (OL) use in paediatric ambulatory clinics in a South African central hospital.

Patients And Methods: OL medicine events were documented in three paediatric clinics (general, highly specialized and dedicated HIV paediatric clinics) at Tygerberg Hospital, South Africa, and analysed according to South African medicine registration information.

Results: There were 2167 medicine events for 658 children.

A treatment-support intervention evaluated in South African paediatric populations with HIV infection or tuberculous meningitis.

Objectives: To evaluate a paediatric treatment-support intervention for home-based treatment of HIV infection or tuberculous meningitis (TBM).

Methods: A randomised-controlled study comparing local standard care (controls) with standard care plus intervention (combining adherence education, reinforcement and monitoring) in children aged 0-14 years. We recorded adherence measures (self-report, pill-count, drug-assays for isoniazid and rifampicin in urine and pyrazinamide in saliva), difficulties administering medication and PedsQL™questionnaires for health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and family impact.

Paediatric ART Adherence in South Africa: A Comprehensive Analysis.

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains a challenge for HIV-infected children. In this cross-sectional study, we used structured interview-administered questionnaires and medical records to measure adherence levels and factors associated with adherence and viral suppression. We included 195 South African children aged 2.

The church and paediatric HIV care in rural South Africa: a qualitative study.

Religion has substantial - positive and negative - influence on South Africa's HIV context. This qualitative study explored possibilities for positive church engagement in paediatric HIV care in a rural district in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Opinions, attitudes and experiences of various stakeholders including religious leaders, healthcare workers and people infected/affected with/by HIV were investigated through participant observation, semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions.

Commercial nucleic acid amplification tests in tuberculous meningitis--a meta-analysis.

Although nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) promise a rapid, definitive diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis, the performance of first-generation NAATs was suboptimal and variable. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies published between 2003 and 2013, using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool to evaluate methodological quality. The diagnostic accuracy of newer commercial NAATs was assessed.

Short intensified treatment in children with drug-susceptible tuberculous meningitis.

Background: The World Health Organization recommends 12-month treatment (2RHZE/10RH) for children with tuberculous meningitis (TBM). Studies evaluating length of antituberculous treatment for TBM report similar completion and relapse rates comparing 6-month treatment with 12-month treatment.

Methods: A prospective evaluation to determine whether short-course intensified treatment (6 RHZEth for HIV-infected and 9RHZEth for HIV-infected) is sufficient and safe in children with drug-susceptible TBM.

State of affairs of tuberculosis in prison facilities: a systematic review of screening practices and recommendations for best TB control.

Background: Prisoners are at high risk of developing tuberculosis (TB), causing morbidity and mortality. Prison facilities encounter many challenges in TB screening procedures and TB control. This review explores screening practices for detection of TB and describes limitations of TB control in prison facilities worldwide.

Tuberculous meningitis: barriers to adherence in home treatment of children and caretaker perceptions.

Introduction: In-hospital treatment of children with tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is not a feasible option in many resource-poor countries. Home-based treatment has shown to be a viable alternative. Adherence is an important factor determining success of treatment.