Larger sample sizes are needed when developing a clinical prediction model using machine learning in oncology: methodological systematic review.

Background: Having a sufficient sample size is crucial when developing a clinical prediction model. We reviewed details of sample size in studies developing prediction models for binary outcomes using machine learning (ML) methods within oncology and compared the sample size used to develop the models with the minimum required sample size needed when developing a regression-based model (N).

Methods: We searched the Medline (via OVID) database for studies developing a prediction model using ML methods published in December 2022.

Development and internal validation of prognostic models for event-free survival in newly diagnosed Ewing sarcoma patients based on routinely collected clinical characteristics from the European randomised controlled trial, EE2012.

Introduction: Ewing sarcoma is a rare paediatric cancer. Currently, there is no way of accurately predicting these patients' survival at diagnosis. Disease type (ie, localised disease, lung/pleuropulmonary metastases and other metastases) is used to guide treatment decisions, with metastatic patients generally having worse outcomes than localised disease patients.

The Value of Clinical Prediction Models in General Practice: A Qualitative Study Exploring the Perspectives of People With Lived Experience of Depression and General Practitioners.

Introduction: Prediction models are increasingly being used to guide clinical decision making in primary care. There is a lack of evidence exploring the views of patients and general practitioners (GPs) in primary care around their use and implementation. We aimed to better understand the perspectives of GPs and people with lived experience of depression around the use of prediction models and communication of risk in primary care.

A Glucose-Responsive Glucagon-Micelle for the Prevention of Hypoglycemia.

While glucose-responsive insulin delivery systems are in widespread clinical use to treat insulin insufficiency, the on-demand supplementation of glucagon for acute hypoglycemia treatment remains understudied. A self-regulated glucagon release material is highly desired to mitigate the potential risks of severe insulin-induced hypoglycemia. Here, we describe a glucose-responsive polymeric nanosystem with glucagon covalently grafted to the end-group.

Alternative substrate kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Nsp15 endonuclease reveals a specificity landscape dominated by RNA structure.

Coronavirus endoribonuclease Nsp15 contributes to the evasion of host innate immunity by suppressing levels of viral dsRNA. Nsp15 cleaves both ssRNA and dsRNA in vitro with a strong preference for unpaired or bulged U residues, and its activity is stimulated by divalent ions. Here, we systematically quantified effects of RNA sequence and structure context that define its specificity.

Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict relapse in adults with remitted depression in primary care: secondary analysis of pooled individual participant data from multiple studies.

Background: Relapse of depression is common and contributes to the overall associated morbidity and burden. We lack evidence-based tools to estimate an individual's risk of relapse after treatment in primary care, which may help us more effectively target relapse prevention.

Objective: The objective was to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict risk of relapse of depression in primary care.

Thermal stress during incubation in an arctic breeding seabird.

Arctic breeding seabirds have experienced dramatic population declines in recent decades. The population of Arctic skuas (Stercorarius parasiticus) nesting on the Faroe Islands, North Atlantic, breed near the southern extent of their breeding range and are experiencing some of the largest declines. This is thought to be caused in part by increased warming due to climate change and thus, it is becoming critical to investigate the proximate and ultimate effects of the thermal environment on parental physiology, behaviour and breeding success.

Development and validation of prediction models for fetal growth restriction and birthweight: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Fetal growth restriction is associated with perinatal morbidity and mortality. Early identification of women having at-risk fetuses can reduce perinatal adverse outcomes.

Objectives: To assess the predictive performance of existing models predicting fetal growth restriction and birthweight, and if needed, to develop and validate new multivariable models using individual participant data.

The sociality of sleep in animal groups.

Group-living animals sleep together, yet most research treats sleep as an individual process. Here, we argue that social interactions during the sleep period contribute in important, but largely overlooked, ways to animal groups' social dynamics, while patterns of social interaction and the structure of social connections within animal groups play important, but poorly understood, roles in shaping sleep behavior. Leveraging field-appropriate methods, such as direct and video-based observation, and increasingly common on-animal motion sensors (e.

Surface Loading Dictates Triplet Production via Singlet Fission in Anthradithiophene Sensitized TiO Films.

Singlet fission, the process of transforming a singlet excited state into two lower energy triplet excited states, is a promising strategy for improving the efficiency of dye-sensitized solar cells. The difficulty in utilizing singlet fission molecules in this architecture is understanding and controlling the orientation of dyes on mesoporous metal oxide surfaces to maximize triplet production and minimize detrimental deactivation pathways, such as electron injection from the singlet or excimer formation. Here, we varied the concentration of loading solutions of two anthradithiophene dyes derivatized with either one or two carboxylic acid groups for binding to a metal oxide surface and studied their photophysics using ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy.

Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict birth weight: individual participant data meta-analysis.

Objective: To predict birth weight at various potential gestational ages of delivery based on data routinely available at the first antenatal visit.

Design: Individual participant data meta-analysis.

Data Sources: Individual participant data of four cohorts (237 228 pregnancies) from the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) network dataset.

Musculoskeletal Health and Work: Development and Internal-External Cross-Validation of a Model to Predict Risk of Work Absence and Presenteeism in People Seeking Primary Healthcare.

Purpose: To develop and validate prediction models for the risk of future work absence and level of presenteeism, in adults seeking primary healthcare with musculoskeletal disorders (MSD).

Methods: Six studies from the West-Midlands/Northwest regions of England, recruiting adults consulting primary care with MSD were included for model development and internal-external cross-validation (IECV). The primary outcome was any work absence within 6 months of their consultation.

Primary to post-depositional microbial controls on the stable and clumped isotope record of shoreline sediments at Fayetteville Green Lake.

Lacustrine carbonates are a powerful archive of paleoenvironmental information but are susceptible to post-depositional alteration. Microbial metabolisms can drive such alteration by changing carbonate saturation in situ, thereby driving dissolution or precipitation. The net impact these microbial processes have on the primary δO, δC, and Δ values of lacustrine carbonate is not fully known.

Trends in clinical workload in UK primary care 2005-2019: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: Substantial increases in UK consulting rates, mean consultation duration, and clinical workload were observed between 2007 and 2014. To the authors' knowledge, no analysis of more recent trends in clinical workload has been published to date. This study updates and builds on previous research, identifying underlying changes in population morbidity levels affecting demand for primary health care.

An Exploratory Study of Bimodal Electro-Aural Stimulation Through the Ear Canals for Tinnitus.

Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the potential for bimodal auditory and noninvasive electrical stimulation at the ears to alleviate tonal, somatic tinnitus that was investigated in a small preliminary trial (11 participants).

Design: Auditory stimulation took the form of short "notched noise" bursts customized to each participant's tinnitus percept. Simultaneous pulsed electrical stimulation, intended to facilitate neuroplasticity, was delivered via hydrogel electrodes placed in opposite ears.

Synchronous timing of return to breeding sites in a long-distance migratory seabird with ocean-scale variation in migration schedules.

Background: Migratory birds generally have tightly scheduled annual cycles, in which delays can have carry-over effects on the timing of later events, ultimately impacting reproductive output. Whether temporal carry-over effects are more pronounced among migrations over larger distances, with tighter schedules, is a largely unexplored question.

Methods: We tracked individual Arctic Skuas Stercorarius parasiticus, a long-distance migratory seabird, from eight breeding populations between Greenland and Siberia using light-level geolocators.

Association between pregnancy-related complications and development of type 2 diabetes and hypertension in women: an umbrella review.

Background: Despite many systematic reviews and meta-analyses examining the associations of pregnancy complications with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and hypertension, previous umbrella reviews have only examined a single pregnancy complication. Here we have synthesised evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses on the associations of a wide range of pregnancy-related complications with risk of developing T2DM and hypertension.

Methods: Medline, Embase and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched from inception until 26 September 2022 for systematic reviews and meta-analysis examining the association between pregnancy complications and risk of T2DM and hypertension.

Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 2): how to undertake an external validation study.

External validation studies are an important but often neglected part of prediction model research. In this article, the second in a series on model evaluation, Riley and colleagues explain what an external validation study entails and describe the key steps involved, from establishing a high quality dataset to evaluating a model’s predictive performance and clinical usefulness.

Factors affecting the implementation of calcium supplementation strategies during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia: a mixed-methods systematic review.

Objectives: Daily calcium supplements are recommended for pregnant women from 20 weeks' gestation to prevent pre-eclampsia in populations with low dietary calcium intake. We aimed to improve understanding of barriers and facilitators for calcium supplement intake during pregnancy to prevent pre-eclampsia.

Design: Mixed-method systematic review, with confidence assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations-Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research approach.

Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO.

The geological record encodes the relationship between climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO) over long and short timescales, as well as potential drivers of evolutionary transitions. However, reconstructing CO beyond direct measurements requires the use of paleoproxies and herein lies the challenge, as proxies differ in their assumptions, degree of understanding, and even reconstructed values. In this study, we critically evaluated, categorized, and integrated available proxies to create a high-fidelity and transparently constructed atmospheric CO record spanning the past 66 million years.

Predictors of outcome in sciatica patients following an epidural steroid injection: the POiSE prospective observational cohort study protocol.

Introduction: Sciatica can be very painful and, in most cases, is due to pressure on a spinal nerve root from a disc herniation with associated inflammation. For some patients, the pain persists, and one management option is a spinal epidural steroid injection (ESI). The aim of an ESI is to relieve leg pain, improve function and reduce the need for surgery.

Risk of bias assessments in individual participant data meta-analyses of test accuracy and prediction models: a review shows improvements are needed.

Objectives: Risk of bias assessments are important in meta-analyses of both aggregate and individual participant data (IPD). There is limited evidence on whether and how risk of bias of included studies or datasets in IPD meta-analyses (IPDMAs) is assessed. We review how risk of bias is currently assessed, reported, and incorporated in IPDMAs of test accuracy and clinical prediction model studies and provide recommendations for improvement.