Progression from latent infection to active disease in dynamic tuberculosis transmission models: a systematic review of the validity of modelling assumptions.

Mathematical modelling is commonly used to evaluate infectious disease control policy and is influential in shaping policy and budgets. Mathematical models necessarily make assumptions about disease natural history and, if these assumptions are not valid, the results of these studies can be biased. We did a systematic review of published tuberculosis transmission models to assess the validity of assumptions about progression to active disease after initial infection (PROSPERO ID CRD42016030009).

The Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases Among US States, 1990-2016.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but regional variation within the United States is large. Comparable and consistent state-level measures of total CVD burden and risk factors have not been produced previously.

Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of lost health due to CVD within the United States from 1990 to 2016 as well as risk factors driving these changes.

The State of US Health, 1990-2016: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Among US States.

Introduction: Several studies have measured health outcomes in the United States, but none have provided a comprehensive assessment of patterns of health by state.

Objective: To use the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to report trends in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors at the state level from 1990 to 2016.

Design And Setting: A systematic analysis of published studies and available data sources estimates the burden of disease by age, sex, geography, and year.

Treatment gaps and potential cardiovascular risk reduction from expanded statin use in the US and England.

Background: The updated national guidelines for cardiovascular risk assessment and lipid modification in the UK and US expand the indications for statin therapy in primary prevention to adults with moderate risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but many adults at high CVD risk remain untreated in both countries. We set out to identify treatment gaps in English and American adults at moderate and high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to estimate the number of CVD events that would be prevented from expanding statin therapy to those who are currently untreated.

Methods: We used nationally representative samples of 10,375 English adults and 7,687 US adults aged 40-75 years and free of existing CVD from the Health Survey for England 2009-2013, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2012 in the US.

Tuberculosis control interventions targeted to previously treated people in a high-incidence setting: a modelling study.

Background: In high-incidence settings, recurrent disease among previously treated individuals contributes substantially to the burden of incident and prevalent tuberculosis. The extent to which interventions targeted to this high-risk group can improve tuberculosis control has not been established. We aimed to project the population-level effect of control interventions targeted to individuals with a history of previous tuberculosis treatment in a high-incidence setting.

Population-level Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Expanding the Recommendation for Age-based Hepatitis C Testing in the United States.

Background: The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommend one-time hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing for persons born 1945-1965 and targeted testing for high-risk persons.

Trading Bankruptcy for Health: A Discrete-Choice Experiment.

Background: Although nearly two-third of bankruptcy in the United States is medical in origin, a common assumption is that individuals facing a potentially lethal disease opt for cure at any cost. This assumption has never been tested, and knowledge of how the American population values a trade-off between cure and bankruptcy is unknown.

Objectives: To determine the relative importance among the general American population of improved health versus improved financial risk protection, and to determine the impact of demographics on these preferences.

Prevalence and correlates of frailty in an older rural African population: findings from the HAALSI cohort study.

Background: Frailty is a key predictor of death and dependency, yet little is known about frailty in sub-Saharan Africa despite rapid population ageing. We describe the prevalence and correlates of phenotypic frailty using data from the Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of an INDEPTH Community cohort.

Methods: We analysed data from rural South Africans aged 40 and over.

The Optimal Age for Screening Adolescents and Young Adults Without Identified Risk Factors for HIV.

Purpose: To assess the optimal age at which a one-time HIV screen should begin for adolescents and young adults (AYA) in the U.S. without identified HIV risk factors, incorporating clinical impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness.

Hepatitis C Testing Increased Among Baby Boomers Following The 2012 Change To CDC Testing Recommendations.

In 2012 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended routine testing for hepatitis C for people born in the period 1945-65. Until now, the recommendation's impact on hepatitis C screening rates in the United States has not been fully understood. We used an interrupted time series with comparison group design to analyze hepatitis C screening rates in the period 2010-14 among 2.

Disparities in Management of Cardiovascular Disease in Rural South Africa: Data From the HAALSI Study (Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health Communities).

Background: Optimal secondary prevention is critical for the reduction of repeated cardiovascular events, and the control of cardiovascular risk factors in this context is essential. Data on secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in sub-Saharan Africa are needed to inform intervention strategies with a particular focus on local disparities. The aim of this study was to assess CVD management in a rural community in northeast South Africa.

Inference With Difference-in-Differences With a Small Number of Groups: A Review, Simulation Study, and Empirical Application Using SHARE Data.

Background: Difference-in-differences (DID) estimation has become increasingly popular as an approach to evaluate the effect of a group-level policy on individual-level outcomes. Several statistical methodologies have been proposed to correct for the within-group correlation of model errors resulting from the clustering of data. Little is known about how well these corrections perform with the often small number of groups observed in health research using longitudinal data.

Awareness, treatment, and control of dyslipidemia in rural South Africa: The HAALSI (Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa) study.

Dyslipidemia is a primary driver for chronic cardiovascular conditions and there is no comprehensive literature about its management in South Africa. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of dyslipidemia in rural South Africa and how they are impacted by different behaviors and non-modifiable factors. To fulfill this objective we recruited for this cohort study adults aged ≥40 years residing in the Agincourt sub-district of Mpumalanga Province.

Bypassing CFTR dysfunction in cystic fibrosis with alternative pathways for anion transport.

One therapeutic strategy for cystic fibrosis (CF) seeks to restore anion transport to affected epithelia by targeting other apical membrane Cl channels to bypass dysfunction of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) Cl channel. The properties and regulation of the Ca-activated Cl channel TMEM16A argue that long-acting small molecules which target directly TMEM16A are required to overcome CFTR loss. Through genetic studies of lung diseases, SLC26A9, a member of the solute carrier 26 family of anion transporters, has emerged as a promising target to bypass CFTR dysfunction.

Cost-effectiveness of Testing and Treatment for Latent Tuberculosis Infection in Residents Born Outside the United States With and Without Medical Comorbidities in a Simulation Model.

Importance: Testing for and treating latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is among the main strategies to achieve TB elimination in the United States. The best approach to testing among non-US born residents, particularly those with comorbid conditions, is uncertain.

Objective: To estimate health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of LTBI testing and treatment among non-US born residents with and without medical comorbidities.

Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study.

Background: The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic costs.

Disability weights for infectious diseases in four European countries: comparison between countries and across respondent characteristics.

Background: In 2015, new disability weights (DWs) for infectious diseases were constructed based on data from four European countries. In this paper, we evaluated if country, age, sex, disease experience status, income and educational levels have an impact on these DWs.

Methods: We analyzed paired comparison responses of the European DW study by participants' characteristics with separate probit regression models.

The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

Importance: Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use.

Objective: To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an “other” group that encompasses residual causes.

Impact of Rapid Susceptibility Testing and Antibiotic Selection Strategy on the Emergence and Spread of Antibiotic Resistance in Gonorrhea.

Background: Increasing antibiotic resistance limits treatment options for gonorrhea. We examined the impact of a hypothetical point-of-care (POC) test reporting antibiotic susceptibility profiles on slowing resistance spread.

Methods: A mathematical model describing gonorrhea transmission incorporated resistance emergence probabilities and fitness costs associated with resistance based on characteristics of ciprofloxacin (A), azithromycin (B), and ceftriaxone (C).