Infection-induced increases to population size during cycles in a discrete-time epidemic model.

One-dimensional discrete-time population models, such as those that involve Logistic or Ricker growth, can exhibit periodic and chaotic dynamics. Expanding the system by one dimension to incorporate epidemiological interactions causes an interesting complexity of new behaviors. Here, we examine a discrete-time two-dimensional susceptible-infectious (SI) model with Ricker growth and show that the introduction of infection can not only produce a distinctly different bifurcation structure than that of the underlying disease-free system but also lead to counter-intuitive increases in population size.

A perturbative approach to the analysis of many-compartment models characterized by the presence of waning immunity.

The waning of immunity after recovery or vaccination is a major factor accounting for the severity and prolonged duration of an array of epidemics, ranging from COVID-19 to diphtheria and pertussis. To study the effectiveness of different immunity level-based vaccination schemes in mitigating the impact of waning immunity, we construct epidemiological models that mimic the latter's effect. The total susceptible population is divided into an arbitrarily large number of discrete compartments with varying levels of disease immunity.

Of Men and Mice: Using Terrestrial Radiation Epidemiology Methods to Inform Analysis of Animal Models for Space Radiation Risk Assessment.

Prediction of cancer risk from space radiation exposure is critical to ensure spaceflight crewmembers are adequately informed of the risks they face when accepting assignments to ambitious long-duration exploratory missions. Although epidemiological studies have assessed the effects of exposure to terrestrial radiation, no robust epidemiological studies of humans exposed to space radiation exist to support estimates of the risk from space radiation exposure. Mouse data derived from recent irradiation experiments provides valuable information to successfully develop mouse-based excess risks models for assessing relative biological effectiveness for heavy ions that can provide information to scale unique space radiation exposures so that excess risks estimated for terrestrial radiation can be adjusted for space radiation risk assessment.

The Need for Biological Countermeasures to Mitigate the Risk of Space Radiation-Induced Carcinogenesis, Cardiovascular Disease, and Central Nervous System Deficiencies.

NASA's currently planned long-duration, deep space exploration missions outside of low Earth orbit (LEO) will result in the exposure of astronauts to relatively high lifetime doses of ionizing radiation (IR), exceeding what humans have previously encountered in space. Of concern to this exposure are the long-term health consequences of radiation carcinogenesis, cardiovascular and degenerative disease, and central nervous system decrements. Existing engineering solutions are insufficient to decrease the lifetime accumulated IR exposure to levels currently allowable by agency standards, therefore appropriate countermeasure and mitigation strategies must be developed to enable long duration missions.

Breaking the limit: Biological countermeasures for space radiation exposure to enable long-duration spaceflight.

Concerns over the health effects of space radiation exposure currently limit the duration of deep-space travel. Effective biological countermeasures could allow humanity to break this limit, facilitating human exploration and sustained presence on the Moon, Mars, or elsewhere in the Solar System. In this issue, we present a collection of 20 articles, each providing perspectives or data relevant to the implementation of a countermeasure discovery and development program.