Publications by authors named "S Ineson"
Article Synopsis
- The study highlights a 1-year delay in how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects extratropical climates, revealing that this response connects with the Arctic Oscillation and is particularly pronounced in the North Atlantic, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
- Unexpectedly, the delayed effects are found to be as strong as the more widely recognized immediate winter impacts, but they occur with opposite signs: a positive NAO follows El Niño and a negative NAO follows La Niña after one year.
- The findings suggest that these lagged responses are not due to overlapping ENSO cycles but are instead driven by changes in atmospheric angular momentum, which could improve our understanding of climate patterns and enhance climate prediction accuracy.
Skilful predictions of near-term climate extremes are key to a resilient society. However, standard methods of analysing seasonal forecasts are not optimised to identify the rarer and most impactful extremes. For example, standard tercile probability maps, used in real-time regional climate outlooks, failed to convey the extreme magnitude of summer 2022 Pakistan rainfall that was, in fact, widely predicted by seasonal forecasts.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWinter 2016/2017 was one of the driest on record for central Europe and the United Kingdom. This was the result of blocked atmospheric circulation with high pressure centred over North-West Europe dominating the winter mean circulation pattern. Using large ensembles of simulated winters, we find that the observed winter 2016/2017 circulation was very similar in pattern and strength to the circulation associated with the top 10% of driest Central European winters.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFIn this Review, the middle initial of author Kim M. Cobb was omitted. The original Review has been corrected online.
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