A modelling approach to support dynamic decision-making in the control of FMD epidemics.

Most studies on control strategies for contagious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) evaluate pre-defined control strategies and imply static decision-making during epidemic control. Such a static approach contradicts the dynamic nature of the decision-making process during epidemic control. This paper presents an integrated epidemic-economic modelling approach to support dynamic decision-making in controlling FMD epidemics.

Effectiveness of simulated interventions in reducing the estimated prevalence of E. coli O157:H7 in lactating cows in dairy herds.

A transmission model developed to investigate the dynamics of Escherichia coli O157:H7 bacteria in a typical Dutch dairy herd was used to assess the effectiveness of vaccination, diet modification, probiotics (colicin) and hygienic measures as to water troughs and bedding, when they are applied single or in combination, in reducing the prevalence of infected animals. The aim was to rank interventions based on their effectiveness in reducing the baseline prevalence of infected animals in the lactating group. The baseline prevalence of the lactating group and the within-herd prevalence were estimated by the model to be 5.

Sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of uncertain factors in a scenario tree model for classical swine fever introduction.

Introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a continuing threat to the pig production sector in the European Union. A scenario tree model was developed to obtain more insight into the main risk factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (P(CSFV)). As this model contains many uncertain input parameters, sensitivity analysis was used to indicate which of these parameters influence model results most.

Simulating Escherichia coli O157:H7 transmission to assess effectiveness of interventions in Dutch dairy-beef slaughterhouses.

Beef contamination with Escherichia coli O157:H7 (VTEC) is an important food-safety issue. To investigate the effectiveness of interventions against VTEC in Dutch beef industrial slaughterhouses that slaughter 500 dairy cattle per day, a Monte Carlo simulation model was built. We examined seven carcass-antimicrobial interventions, namely: hot-water wash, lactic-acid rinse, trim, steam-vacuum, steam-pasteurization, hide-wash with ethanol and gamma irradiation, and their combinations.

Risk factors for sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders among self-employed Dutch farmers: a case-control study.

Background: In Dutch agriculture, musculoskeletal disorders are a main cause of sick leave. Among self-employed insured farmers, neck, shoulder, upper extremity, and back disorders accounted for 30% of the claims for sick leave of less than 1 year This case-control study set out to identify and quantify risk factors for sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders among self-employed Dutch farmers.

Methods: Sick leave, claimed at an insurance company from 1998 to 2001 for back (SL-BP, n = 198) or neck/shoulder/upper extremity trouble (SL-EXT, n = 89) was analyzed; the controls did not file any claim in this period (n = 816).

Scenario tree modeling to analyze the probability of classical swine fever virus introduction into member states of the European Union.

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU).