Relative importance of VECTRI model parameters in the malaria disease transmission and prevalence.

In this study, a sensitivity analysis on a VECTRI dynamical model of malaria transmission is investigated to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission and prevalence. Apart from being most climatic prone, Odisha is a highly endemic state for malaria in India. The lack in sufficient modeling studies severely impacts the malarial process studies which further hinder the possibility of malaria early warning systems and preventive measures to be undertaken beforehand.

Potential future malaria transmission in Odisha due to climate change.

Future projections of malaria transmission is made for Odisha, a highly endemic region of India, through numerical simulations using the VECTRI dynamical model. The model is forced with bias-corrected temperature and rainfall from a global climate model (CCSM4) for the baseline period 1975-2005 and for the projection periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP8.5 emission scenario.

Numerical Modeling of the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission in a Highly Endemic Region of India.

Using a dynamical model (VECTRI) for malaria transmission that accounts for the influence of population and climatic conditions, malaria transmission dynamics is investigated for a highly endemic region (state of Odisha) in India. The model is first calibrated over the region, and subsequently numerical simulations are carried out for the period 2000-2013. Using both model and observations we find that temperature, adult mosquito population, and infective biting rates have increased over this period, and the malaria vector abundance is higher during the summer monsoon season.