Hand, foot, and mouth disease in Changsha City, China, 2009-2017: a new method to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of the disease.

By adopting a new method, this study aimed to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in nine districts and counties (cities) of Changsha City, China, from 2009 to 2017. The reported HFMD cases were collected in Changsha from 2009 to 2017. The traditional descriptive method and a new method (index system) including six indices (richness index , Simpson diversity index , Shannon diversity index , Berger-Parker dominance index , Shannon evenness index , and Morisita-Horn similarity index ) were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Changsha.

Detecting influenza and emerging avian influenza virus by influenza and pneumonia surveillance systems in a large city in China, 2005 to 2016.

Background: Detecting avian influenza virus has become an important public health strategy for controlling the emerging infectious disease.

Methods: The HIS (hospital information system) modified influenza surveillance system (ISS) and a newly built pneumonia surveillance system (PSS) were used to monitor the influenza viruses in Changsha City, China. The ISS was used to monitor outpatients in two sentinel hospitals and to detect mild influenza and avian influenza cases, and PSS was used to monitor inpatients in 49 hospitals and to detect severe and death influenza cases.

Public health concerns regarding sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in China: a case series.

In this study, we report three cases of sporadic Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease in China, two confirmed cases and one probable case. The aim of this study was to enrich the data regarding clinical and epidemiological features of this disease and to provide reference for the diagnosis, control, and prevention of sporadic Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease.

Estimating the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease by a dynamic model.

Objective: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious public health issue in many countries; however, its transmissibility in county-level outbreaks remains unclear. The aim of this study is to estimate the transmissibility of HFMD epidemics on both city level and county level, for a better understanding of the transmission dynamics of HFMD epidemics.

Study Design: Simulation based on data obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.

Evolved avian influenza virus (H7N9) isolated from human cases in a middle Yangtze River city in China, from February to April 2017.

Seven cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection were reported from February to April 2017 in Changsha City. Viral genome was acquired by RT-PCR, aligned with other H7N9 viruses using Clustal W, and phylogenetic trees were constructed using the neighbor-joining method. Our results showed the representativeness of H7N9 virus infections in Middle Yangtze River City.

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of a young child infected with avian influenza A (H9N2) virus in China.

Three cases of the avian influenza A (H9N2) virus have been documented in Changsha, which is a large city that has nine districts and a population of 7.04 million in central South China. Among these patients, one was a girl and two were boys.

Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China.

Objective: To use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza outbreak in a school in order to assess the effectiveness of isolation (Iso), antiviral therapeutics, antiviral prophylactics (P), vaccination prior to the outbreak, and school closure (for 1 [S1w], 2 or 3 weeks).

Methods: This study developed a susceptible–exposed–infectious/asymptomatic–recovered model to estimate the effectiveness of commonly used interventions for seasonal influenza outbreaks in school.

Results: The most effective single-intervention strategy was isolation with a total attack rate of 1.

Rabies Virus Transmission in Solid Organ Transplantation, China, 2015-2016.

We report rabies virus transmission among solid organ transplantation recipients in Changsha, China, in 2016. Two recipients were confirmed to have rabies and died. Our findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the possibility of rabies virus transmission through organ transplantation for clinical and public health reasons.

Evaluating the effects of common control measures for influenza A (H1N1) outbreak at school in China: A modeling study.

Background: Influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks have become common at schools in China since 2009. However, the effects of common countermeasures for school influenza outbreak have not been quantified so far, including isolation, vaccination, antivirus and school closure. We conducted a mathematically modeling study to address this unsolved issue.

Transmissibility of the Influenza Virus during Influenza Outbreaks and Related Asymptomatic Infection in Mainland China, 2005-2013.

We collected 2768 Influenza-like illness emergency public health incidents from April 1, 2005 to November 30, 2013reported in the Emergency Public Reporting System. After screening by strict inclusion and exclusion criteria, there were 613 outbreaks analyzed with susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed model in order to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic individuals (p) and the effective reproduction number (Rt). The relation between Rt and viral subtypes, regions, outbreak sites, populations, and seasons were analyzed.

Evidence-Based interventions of Norovirus outbreaks in China.

Background: In resource-limited settings where laboratory capacity is limited and response strategy is non-specific, delayed or inappropriate intervention against outbreaks of Norovirus (NoV) are common. Here we report interventions of two norovirus outbreaks, which highlight the importance of evidence-based modeling and assessment to identify infection sources and formulate effective response strategies.

Methods: Spatiotemporal scanning, mathematical and random walk modeling predicted the modes of transmission in the two incidents, which were supported by laboratory results and intervention outcomes.

Clinical, epidemiological and virological characteristics of the first detected human case of avian influenza A(H5N6) virus.

A human infection with novel avian influenza A H5N6 virus emerged in Changsha city, China in February, 2014. This is the first detected human case among all human cases identified from 2014 to early 2016. We obtained and summarized clinical, epidemiological, and virological data from this patient.

[A model for evaluation of key measures for control of chikungunya fever outbreak in China].

Objective: To analyze the transmission pattern of Chikungunya (CHIK) fever in community and evaluate the effectiveness of mosquito control, case isolation and other key control measures by using ordinary differential equation (ODE) model.

Methods: According to natural history of CHIK, an ODE model for the epidemiological analysis of CHIK outbreak was established. The key parameters of the model were obtained by fitting the model with reported outbreak data of the first CHIK outbreak in China.

The Effectiveness of Age-Specific Isolation Policies on Epidemics of Influenza A (H1N1) in a Large City in Central South China.

During the early stage of a pandemic, isolation is the most effective means of controlling transmission. However, the effectiveness of age-specific isolation policies is not clear; especially little information is available concerning their effectiveness in China. Epidemiological and serological survey data in the city of Changsha were employed to estimate key model parameters.

Risk of imported Ebola virus disease in China.

Background: More than 600,000 annual arrivals from Africa, 1.4 billion population and developing health care systems render China at non-negligible risk of imported Ebola virus disease (EVD).

Method: According to the natural history of EVD, we constructed a deterministic SEIR model.

Analysis of the full-length genome of a novel strain of the H7N9 avian influenza virus.

The aim of the present study was to analyze the evolution and variation of a novel strain of the avian influenza virus. The virus-positive specimens [A/Changsha/2/2013 (H7N9)] from a patient infected with the novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was amplified by reverse transcription-PCR and the full genome was sequenced. The sequencing results were submitted to GenBank and then analyzed by phylogenetic tree analysis using BioEdit and Mega5 software.

Investigation of key interventions for shigellosis outbreak control in China.

Shigellosis is a major public health concern in China, where waterborne disease outbreaks are common. Shigellosis-containing strategies, mostly single or multiple interventions, are implemented by primary-level health departments. Systematic assessment of the effectiveness of these measures is scarce.

[Study on the efficacy of quarantine during outbreaks of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis outbreaks at schools through the susceptive-infective-quarantine-removal model].

To assess the efficacy of quarantine for acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) outbreaks control in schools, by using the Compartment Model. Through combining the characters of both AHC and compartment model, we built a susceptive-infective-removal (SIR) model suited for AHC outbreaks control in schools, and then quarantine was added into the model to develop a susceptive-infective-quarantine-removal (SIQR) model. An outbreak of AHC in Changsha in 2011 was employed as a sample to assess the effect of quarantine for the prevention and control of AHC.

[The warning model and influence of climatic changes on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changsha city].

Objective: To realize the influence of climatic changes on the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), and to explore the adoption of climatic factors in warning HFRS.

Methods: A total of 2171 cases of HFRS and the synchronous climatic data in Changsha from 2000 to 2009 were collected to a climate-based forecasting model for HFRS transmission. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was employed to explore the variation trend of the annual incidence of HFRS.

[Application of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model in dealing with an outbreak of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis on one school campus].

To simulate intervention measures in controlling an outbreak of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis on one school campus by using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, to provide evidence for preparedness and response to the epidemic. Classical SIR model was used to model the epidemic. Malthusian exponential decline method was employed to estimate the infective coefficient β for interventions.

[Spatio-temporal process and the influencing factors on influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Changsha].

Objective: To analyze the spatio-temporal process on 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Changsha and the influencing factors during the diffusion process.

Methods: Data were from the following 5 sources, influenza A (H1N1) pandemic gathered in 2009, Geographic Information System (GIS) of Changsha, the broad range of theorems and techniques of hot spot analysis, spatio-temporal process analysis and Spearman correlation analysis.

Results: Hot spot areas appeared to be more in the economically developed areas, such as cities and townships.

Influenza A (H1N1) transmission by road traffic between cities and towns.

Influenza A (H1N1) was spread widely between cities and towns by road traffic and had a major impact on public health in China in 2009. Understanding regulation of its transmission is of great significance with urbanization ongoing and for mitigation of damage by the epidemic. We analyzed influenza A (H1N1) spatiotemporal transmission and risk factors along roads in Changsha, and combined diffusion velocity and floating population size to construct an epidemic diffusion model to simulate its transmission between cities and towns.