The effectiveness and design of informed choice tools for people with severe mental illness: a systematic review.

Background: People with severe mental illness (SMI) report difficulty in making health-related decisions. Informed choice tools are designed to guide individuals through a decision-making process.

Aims: To determine the effectiveness of these tools for people with SMI and to identify what methods and processes may contribute to effectiveness.

An account of subjective probability judgment for joint events: Conjunctive and disjunctive.

Probability judgment is a vital part of many aspects of everyday life. In the present paper, we present a new theory of the way in which individuals produce probability estimates for joint events: conjunctive and disjunctive. We propose that a majority of individuals produce conjunctive (disjunctive) estimates by making a quasi-random adjustment, positive or negative, from the less (more) likely component probability with the other component playing no obvious role.

Measures of Bayesian Reasoning Performance on 'Normal' and 'Natural' Frequency Tasks.

While the majority of similar studies examining Bayesian reasoning investigate how participants avoid common errors such as base-rate neglect, the current research also examines whether different formats (frequency and probability) lead to a difference in levels of absolute accuracy. In Study One, older (≥60 years) and younger (18 to 29 years) participants completed tasks in probability and normalized frequency formats. In Study 2, participants completed tasks in probability and natural frequency formats.