Associations between fluctuations in lung function and asthma control in two populations with differing asthma severity.

Background: Lung function is a major criterion used to assess asthma control. Fluctuation analyses can account for lung function history over time, and may provide an additional dimension to characterise control. The relationships between mean and fluctuations in lung function with asthma control, exacerbation and quality of life were studied in two independent data sets.

Predicting future risk of asthma exacerbations using individual conditional probabilities.

Background: Determination of future risk of exacerbations is a key issue in the management of asthma. We previously developed a method to calculate conditional probabilities (π) of future decreases in lung function by using the daily fluctuations in peak expiratory flow (PEF).

Objective: We aimed to extend calculation of π values to individual patients, validated by using electronically recorded data from 2 past clinical trials.