New models for the time dependent toxicity of individual and combined toxicants.

Time-dependent toxicity data of specific toxicants observed against were analysed using a single time-dependent Weibull cumulative distribution function (CDF). For binary mixtures the individual Weibull parameters provided the marginals for a bivariate copula model, characterised by a single extra parameter, the interaction exponent, . The copula model unites both the dose addition (DA, Loewe additivity) and dose independence (DI, Bliss independence) hypotheses of combinations into a single explicit equation and returns both hypotheses as special cases.

Assessing the survival of Listeria monocytogenes in a domestic freezer by analyzing subsequent growth at 30°C using a novel reference method.

Listeria monocytogenes is a serious pathogen capable of extensive survival under frozen storage. Using optical density and multiple initial inocula in multiple identically prepared microtiter plates, the effect of storage time at -22°C on the subsequent growth at 30°C of the organism when defrosted was studied using a technique that compared the growth (through time to detection) of a test plate (previously frozen) with that of an identically prepared control plate, analyzed at the start of the experiment. Experiments were carried out using tryptic soy broth (TSB) or TSB supplemented with 3% salt.

A generic model for spoilage of acidic emulsified foods: combining physicochemical data, diversity and levels of specific spoilage organisms.

The spoilage pattern of three emulsified, vegetable-based spreads of low pH (3.90-4.15) adjusted with acetic acid was characterized by correlating the growth of spoilage flora with the organoleptic and physicochemical changes, as well as the changes in the species composition of the dominant microflora during storage under isothermal conditions.

Rapid throughput analysis of filamentous fungal growth using turbidimetric measurements with the Bioscreen C: a tool for screening antifungal compounds.

A rapid method for screening antifungal compounds and performing ecophysiological studies with filamentous fungi has been developed by the use of specific semi-solid media and spectrophotometric/turbidimetric measurements using the Bioscreen C with 2×100 microtitre well plates. The medium composition and preparation, inoculum size, medium volumes, and incubation parameters for measuring initial germination and growth dynamics have been optimised. These have been applied to assess the effectiveness of 18 concentrations of propyl propane thiosulfinate (PTS) against Aspergillus flavus in YES medium under different environmental regimes.

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them.

Limiting mycotoxins in stored wheat.

The quality of harvested wheat grain can deteriorate markedly during the post-harvest management stages. Biotic factors, such as grain type and ripeness, coupled with the prevailing abiotic factors, such as water content and temperature, and also preservative concentration will influence the safe storage life and the level of contamination with mycotoxins. These mycotoxins include deoxynivalenol (DON) produced pre-harvest and zearalenone (ZEA) produced post-harvest by Fusarium graminearum and Fusarium poae, respectively, ochratoxin (OTA) produced by Penicillium verrucosum post-harvest in cool damp northern European climates, and perhaps T-2 and HT-2 toxins produced by Fusarium langsethiae.

Quantification of hurdles: predicting the combination of effects -- Interaction vs. non-interaction.

Combination of disparate as well as related antimicrobial effects constitutes the concept of hurdle technology. Quantification of combined effects, including claims of synergy, can be accomplished using surface response modelling, as is frequently done and reported. The Gamma hypothesis, however, states that the relative effects of different antimicrobial factors combine independently.

Application of predictive modelling techniques in industry: from food design up to risk assessment.

In this communication, examples of applications of predictive microbiology in industrial contexts (i.e. Nestlé and Unilever) are presented which cover a range of applications in food safety from formulation and process design to consumer safety risk assessment.

An explanation for the effect of inoculum size on MIC and the growth/no growth interface.

The inoculum effect (IE) is the phenomenon observed where changes in the inoculum size used in an experiment alters the outcome with respect to, for example, the minimum inhibitory concentration of an antimicrobial or the growth/no growth boundary for a given set of environmental conditions. Various hypotheses exist as to the cause of the IE such as population heterogeneity and quorum sensing, as well as the null hypothesis - that it is artefactual. Time to detection experiments (TTD) were carried out on different initial inoculum sizes of several bacterial species (Aeromonas hydrophila, Enterobacter sakazakii, Salmonella Poona, Escherichia coli and Listeria innocua) when challenged with different pH and with combined pH and sodium acetate.

Comparing the antimicrobial effectiveness of NaCl and KCl with a view to salt/sodium replacement.

A study using a small range of pathogenic bacterial species (Aeromonas hydrophila, Enterobacter sakazakii, Shigella flexneri, Yersinia enterocolitica and 3 strains of Staphylococcus aureus) has shown that potassium chloride has an equivalent antimicrobial effect on these organisms when calculated on a molar basis. Combined NaCl and KCl experiments were carried out and data was analysed using a modification to the Lambert and Lambert [Lambert, R.J.

Gamma study of pH, nitrite, and salt inhibition of Aeromonas hydrophila.

The gamma hypothesis states that there are no interactions between antimicrobial environmental factors. The time to growth of Aeromonas hydrophila challenged with pH, NaNO(2), and salt combinations at 30 degrees C was investigated. Data were examined using a model based on the gamma hypothesis (the gamma model), which takes into account variance-stabilizing transformations and which gives biologically relevant parameters.

A study of the Gamma hypothesis: predictive modelling of the growth and inhibition of Enterobacter sakazakii.

Although the temperature growth profile of the opportunistic pathogen Enterobacter sakazakii is known, few other environmental factors affecting growth have been analysed. Using a model based on the Gamma hypothesis--that antimicrobial factors in mixtures exert independent effects--a range of weak acids (lactic, acetic, propionic, citric, sorbic and benzoic), pH, salt and temperature and some of their combinations were examined. The weak acids examined inhibited principally with the acid-form of the weak acid, however, benzoic, sorbic and propionic acids also displayed an inhibitory contribution from their respective anionic forms.

An investigation of the Gamma hypothesis: a predictive modelling study of the effect of combined inhibitors (salt, pH and weak acids) on the growth of Aeromonas hydrophila.

The Gamma hypothesis, that multiple inhibitory factors combine independently, is the underlying hypothesis for the quantification of the Hurdle concept used in food manufacture. The literature, however, is confused as to whether interactive effects exist and under which circumstances they occur, if at all. Using the method of time to detection (TTD), the inhibitory effect of pH, salt and specific weak acids (acetic, propionic, sorbic and benzoic) and combinations of these with respect to the growth of Aeromonas hydrophila (ATCC 7966) were analysed.