Panel-based assessment of ecosystem condition as a platform for adaptive and knowledge driven management.

Ecosystems are subjected to increasing exposure to multiple anthropogenic drivers. This has led to the development of national and international accounting systems describing the condition of ecosystems, often based on few, highly aggregated indicators. Such accounting systems would benefit from a stronger theoretical and empirical underpinning of ecosystem dynamics.

Is the diet cyclic phase-dependent in boreal vole populations?

Herbivorous rodents in boreal, alpine and arctic ecosystems are renowned for their multi-annual population cycles. Researchers have hypothesised that these cycles may result from herbivore-plant interactions in various ways. For instance, if the biomass of preferred food plants is reduced after a peak phase of a cycle, rodent diets can be expected to become dominated by less preferred food plants, leading the population to a crash.

Effects of resource availability and interspecific interactions on Arctic and red foxes' winter use of ungulate carrion in the Fennoscandian low-Arctic tundra.

In the Arctic tundra, predators face recurrent periods of food scarcity and often turn to ungulate carcasses as an alternative food source. As important and localized resource patches, carrion promotes co-occurrence of different individuals, and its use by predators is likely to be affected by interspecific competition. We studied how interspecific competition and resource availability impact winter use of carrion by Arctic and red foxes in low Arctic Fennoscandia.

Predator co-occurrence in alpine and Arctic tundra in relation to fluctuating prey.

Large carnivores influence ecosystem dynamics in multiple ways, for example, by suppressing meso-carnivores and providing carrions for smaller scavengers. Loss of large carnivores is suggested to cause meso-carnivore increase and expansion. Moreover, competition between meso-carnivores may be modified by the presence of larger carnivores.

Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony.

Studies of spatial population synchrony constitute a central approach for understanding the drivers of ecological dynamics. Recently, identifying the ecological impacts of climate change has emerged as a new important focus in population synchrony studies. However, while it is well known that climatic seasonality and sequential density dependence influences local population dynamics, the role of season-specific density dependence in shaping large-scale population synchrony has not received attention.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest geometrid outbreaks.

We highlight recent developments and avenues for advancement, which can improve insight into the causes of changes in the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest Geometridea moth species (hereafter 'geometrids'). Some forest geometrids possess fundamental biological traits, which make them particularly liable to outbreak range expansions and host shifts mitigated by climate change. Indeed, recently observed changes in geometrid spatiotemporal dynamics represent both new research opportunities and challenges for empirically testing drivers of intra- and interspecific spatial synchrony, including the role of trophic interactions and biological traits (e.

Issues of under-representation in quantitative DNA metabarcoding weaken the inference about diet of the tundra vole .

During the last decade, methods based on high-throughput sequencing such as DNA metabarcoding have opened up for a range of new questions in animal dietary studies. One of the major advantages of dietary metabarcoding resides in the potential to infer a quantitative relationship between sequence read proportions and biomass of ingested food. However, this relationship's robustness is highly dependent on the system under study, calling for case-specific assessments.

Climate variability and density-dependent population dynamics: Lessons from a simple High Arctic ecosystem.

Ecologists are still puzzled by the diverse population dynamics of herbivorous small mammals that range from high-amplitude, multiannual cycles to stable dynamics. Theory predicts that this diversity results from combinations of climatic seasonality, weather stochasticity, and density-dependent food web interactions. The almost ubiquitous 3- to 5-y cycles in boreal and arctic climates may theoretically result from bottom-up (plant-herbivore) and top-down (predator-prey) interactions.

Effect of scavenging on predation in a food web.

Scavenging can have important consequences for food web dynamics, for example, it may support additional consumer species and affect predation on live prey. Still, few food web models include scavenging. We develop a dynamic model that includes two facultative scavenger species, which we refer to as the predator or scavenger species according to their natural scavenging propensity, as well as live prey, and a carrion pool to show ramifications of scavenging for predation in simple food webs.

Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture-recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears ().

In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long-term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models for estimating demographic parameters in free-ranging animal populations mostly ignore extended parental care, thereby limiting our understanding of its consequences on parents and offspring life histories.

Iterative model predictions for wildlife populations impacted by rapid climate change.

To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and management strategies to be tailored simultaneously. Iterative near-term forecasting may therefore be particularly useful for adaptive monitoring of ecosystems subjected to rapid climate change.

Environmental conditions alter successional trajectories on an ephemeral resource: a field experiment with beetles in dead wood.

Successional processes can be observed for many organisms and resources, but most studies of succession have focused on plants. A general framework has been proposed, advocating that successional patterns in species turnover are predominantly driven by competition, dispersal or abiotic limitation, and that the patterning of species accumulation over time gives clues to which process is most influential in a given system. We applied this framework to succession in communities of wood-living beetles, utilizing ephemeral resources in the form of 60 experimentally created dead aspen high stumps.

End-user involvement to improve predictions and management of populations with complex dynamics and multiple drivers.

Sustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species in Norway. Based on local knowledge of stakeholders, it was decided that the model should include food web interactions and climatic drivers to provide explanatory predictions.

Dietary variation in Icelandic arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) over a period of 30 years assessed through stable isotopes.

Identifying resources driving long-term trends in predators is important to understand ecosystem changes and to manage populations in the context of conservation or control. The arctic fox population in Iceland has increased steadily over a period of 30 years, an increase that has been attributed to an overall increase in food abundance. We hypothesized that increasing populations of geese or seabirds were driving this growth.

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active.

Rodent population cycle as a determinant of gastrointestinal nematode abundance in a low-arctic population of the red fox.

We analyzed an 11-year time series (2005-2015) of parasite abundance for three intestinal nematode species in the red fox () as a function of the multi-annual rodent population cycle in low-arctic Norway, while correcting for other potential covariates that could influence prevalence and abundance. Rodents are paratenic and facultative intermediate hosts for the two Ascarididae species and , respectively and key prey for the red fox. Still the relative importance of indirect transmission through rodents and direct transmission through free-living stages is unclear.

Contrasting changes in space use induced by climate change in two Arctic marine mammal species.

Global warming is inducing major environmental changes in the Arctic. These changes will differentially affect species owing to differences in climate sensitivity and behavioural plasticity. Arctic endemic marine mammals are expected to be impacted significantly by ongoing changes in their key habitats owing to their long life cycles and dependence on ice.

Spatial synchrony in sub-arctic geometrid moth outbreaks reflects dispersal in larval and adult life cycle stages.

Spatial synchrony in population dynamics can be caused by dispersal or spatially correlated variation in environmental factors like weather (Moran effect). Distinguishing between these mechanisms is challenging for natural populations, and the study of dispersal-induced synchrony in particular has been dominated by theoretical modelling and laboratory experiments. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the evidence for dispersal as a cause of meso-scale (distances of tens of kilometres) spatial synchrony in natural populations of the two cyclic geometrid moths Epirrita autumnata and Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic mountain birch forest in northern Norway.

Habitats and movement patterns of white whales in Svalbard, Norway in a changing climate.

Background: The Arctic is experiencing rapid reductions in sea ice and in some areas tidal glaciers are melting and retracting onto land. These changes are occurring at extremely rapid rates in the Northeast Atlantic Arctic. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts of these environmental changes on space use by white whales () in Svalbard, Norway.

Transferability of biotic interactions: Temporal consistency of arctic plant-rodent relationships is poor.

Variability in biotic interaction strength is an integral part of food web functioning. However, the consequences of the spatial and temporal variability of biotic interactions are poorly known, in particular for predicting species abundance and distribution. The amplitude of rodent population cycles (i.

Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances.

Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak.

Rangifer management controls a climate-sensitive tundra state transition.

Rangifer (caribou/reindeer) management has been suggested to mitigate the temperature-driven transition of Arctic tundra into a shrubland state, yet how this happens is uncertain. Here we study this much focused ecosystem state transition in riparian areas, where palatable willows (Salix) are dominant tall shrubs and highly responsive to climate change. For the state transition to take place, small life stages must become tall and abundant.

Why Do the Boreal Forest Ecosystems of Northwestern Europe Differ from Those of Western North America?

The boreal forest is one of the largest terrestrial biomes on Earth. Conifers normally dominate the tree layer across the biome, but other aspects of ecosystem structure and dynamics vary geographically. The cause of the conspicuous differences in the understory vegetation and the herbivore-predator cycles between northwestern Europe and western North America presents an enigma.