Mechanistic neutral models show that sampling biases drive the apparent explosion of early tetrapod diversity.

Estimates of deep-time biodiversity typically rely on statistical methods to mitigate the impacts of sampling biases in the fossil record. However, these methods are limited by the spatial and temporal scale of the underlying data. Here we use a spatially explicit mechanistic model, based on neutral theory, to test hypotheses of early tetrapod diversity change during the late Carboniferous and early Permian, critical intervals for the diversification of vertebrate life on land.

Biodiversity across space and time in the fossil record.

The fossil record is the primary source of information on how biodiversity has varied in deep time, providing unique insight on the long-term dynamics of diversification and their drivers. However, interpretations of fossil record diversity patterns have been much debated, with a traditional focus on global diversity through time. Problems arise because the fossil record is spatially and temporally patchy, so 'global' diversity estimates actually represent the summed diversity across a set of geographically and environmentally distinct regions that vary substantially in number and identity through time.

The apparent exponential radiation of Phanerozoic land vertebrates is an artefact of spatial sampling biases.

There is no consensus about how terrestrial biodiversity was assembled through deep time, and in particular whether it has risen exponentially over the Phanerozoic. Using a database of 60 859 fossil occurrences, we show that the spatial extent of the worldwide terrestrial tetrapod fossil record itself expands exponentially through the Phanerozoic. Changes in spatial sampling explain up to 67% of the change in known fossil species counts, and these changes are decoupled from variation in habitable land area that existed through time.

Diversity dynamics of Phanerozoic terrestrial tetrapods at the local-community scale.

The fossil record provides one of the strongest tests of the hypothesis that diversity within local communities is constrained over geological timescales. Constraints to diversity are particularly controversial in modern terrestrial ecosystems, yet long-term patterns are poorly understood. Here we document patterns of local richness in Phanerozoic terrestrial tetrapods using a global data set comprising 145,332 taxon occurrences from 27,531 collections.

Diversity change during the rise of tetrapods and the impact of the 'Carboniferous rainforest collapse'.

The Carboniferous and early Permian were critical intervals in the diversification of early four-limbed vertebrates (tetrapods), yet the major patterns of diversity and biogeography during this time remain unresolved. Previous estimates suggest that global tetrapod diversity rose continuously across this interval and that habitat fragmentation following the 'Carboniferous rainforest collapse' (CRC) drove increased endemism among communities. However, previous work failed to adequately account for spatial and temporal biases in sampling.

Comparative analysis of vestibular ecomorphology in birds.

The bony labyrinth of vertebrates houses the semicircular canals. These sense rotational accelerations of the head and play an essential role in gaze stabilisation during locomotion. The sizes and shapes of the semicircular canals have hypothesised relationships to agility and locomotory modes in many groups, including birds, and a burgeoning palaeontological literature seeks to make ecological interpretations from the morphology of the labyrinth in extinct species.

Controlling for the species-area effect supports constrained long-term Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate diversification.

Variation in the geographic spread of fossil localities strongly biases inferences about the evolution of biodiversity, due to the ubiquitous scaling of species richness with area. This obscures answers to key questions, such as how tetrapods attained their tremendous extant diversity. Here, we address this problem by applying sampling standardization methods to spatial regions of equal size, within a global Mesozoic-early Palaeogene data set of non-flying terrestrial tetrapods.

Evidence for a Mid-Jurassic Adaptive Radiation in Mammals.

A series of spectacular discoveries have transformed our understanding of Mesozoic mammals in recent years. These finds reveal hitherto-unsuspected ecomorphological diversity that suggests that mammals experienced a major adaptive radiation during the Middle to Late Jurassic. Patterns of mammalian macroevolution must be reinterpreted in light of these new discoveries, but only taxonomic diversity and limited aspects of morphological disparity have been quantified.

Functional morphometric analysis of the furcula in mesozoic birds.

The furcula displays enormous morphological and structural diversity. Acting as an important origin for flight muscles involved in the downstroke, the form of this element has been shown to vary with flight mode. This study seeks to clarify the strength of this form-function relationship through the use of eigenshape morphometric analysis coupled with recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs), including phylogenetic Flexible Discriminant Analysis (pFDA).