ECG analysis of ventricular fibrillation dynamics reflects ischaemic progression subject to variability in patient anatomy and electrode location.

Background: Ventricular fibrillation (VF) is the deadliest arrhythmia, often caused by myocardial ischaemia. VF patients require urgent intervention planned quickly and non-invasively. However, the accuracy with which electrocardiographic (ECG) markers reflect the underlying arrhythmic substrate is unknown.

In silico evaluation of cell therapy in acute versus chronic infarction: role of automaticity, heterogeneity and Purkinje in human.

Human-based modelling and simulation offer an ideal testbed for novel medical therapies to guide experimental and clinical studies. Myocardial infarction (MI) is a common cause of heart failure and mortality, for which novel therapies are urgently needed. Although cell therapy offers promise, electrophysiological heterogeneity raises pro-arrhythmic safety concerns, where underlying complex spatio-temporal dynamics cannot be investigated experimentally.

Perlin noise generation of physiologically realistic cardiac fibrosis.

Fibrosis, a pathological increase in extracellular matrix proteins, is a significant health issue that hinders the function of many organs in the body, in some cases fatally. In the heart, fibrosis impacts on electrical propagation in a complex and poorly predictable fashion, potentially serving as a substrate for dangerous arrhythmias. Individual risk depends on the spatial manifestation of fibrotic tissue, and learning the spatial arrangement on the fine scale in order to predict these impacts still relies upon invasive ex vivo procedures.

Bridging the gap between models based on ordinary, delayed, and fractional differentials equations through integral kernels.

Evolution equations with convolution-type integral operators have a history of study, yet a gap exists in the literature regarding the link between certain convolution kernels and new models, including delayed and fractional differential equations. We demonstrate, starting from the logistic model structure, that classical, delayed, and fractional models are special cases of a framework using a gamma Mittag-Leffler memory kernel. We discuss and classify different types of this general kernel, analyze the asymptotic behavior of the general model, and provide numerical simulations.

Digital twinning of the human ventricular activation sequence to Clinical 12-lead ECGs and magnetic resonance imaging using realistic Purkinje networks for in silico clinical trials.

Cardiac in silico clinical trials can virtually assess the safety and efficacy of therapies using human-based modelling and simulation. These technologies can provide mechanistic explanations for clinically observed pathological behaviour. Designing virtual cohorts for in silico trials requires exploiting clinical data to capture the physiological variability in the human population.

Recurrence quantification analysis for fine-scale characterisation of arrhythmic patterns in cardiac tissue.

This paper uses recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) combined with entropy measures and organization indices to characterize arrhythmic patterns and dynamics in computer simulations of cardiac tissue. We performed different simulations of cardiac tissues of sizes comparable to the human heart atrium. In these simulations, we observed four classic arrhythmic patterns: a spiral wave anchored to a highly fibrotic region resulting in sustained re-entry, a meandering spiral wave, fibrillation, and a spiral wave anchored to a scar region that breaks up into wavelets away from the main rotor.

Enhanced optimization-based method for the generation of patient-specific models of Purkinje networks.

Cardiac Purkinje networks are a fundamental part of the conduction system and are known to initiate a variety of cardiac arrhythmias. However, patient-specific modeling of Purkinje networks remains a challenge due to their high morphological complexity. This work presents a novel method based on optimization principles for the generation of Purkinje networks that combines geometric and activation accuracy in branch size, bifurcation angles, and Purkinje-ventricular-junction activation times.

Homogenisation for the monodomain model in the presence of microscopic fibrotic structures.

Computational models in cardiac electrophysiology are notorious for long runtimes, restricting the numbers of nodes and mesh elements in the numerical discretisations used for their solution. This makes it particularly challenging to incorporate structural heterogeneities on small spatial scales, preventing a full understanding of the critical arrhythmogenic effects of conditions such as cardiac fibrosis. In this work, we explore the technique of homogenisation by volume averaging for the inclusion of non-conductive micro-structures into larger-scale cardiac meshes with minor computational overhead.

Graph-based homogenisation for modelling cardiac fibrosis.

Fibrosis, the excess of extracellular matrix, can affect, and even block, propagation of action potential in cardiac tissue. This can result in deleterious effects on heart function, but the nature and severity of these effects depend strongly on the localisation of fibrosis and its by-products in cardiac tissue, such as collagen scar formation. Computer simulation is an important means of understanding the complex effects of fibrosis on activation patterns in the heart, but concerns of computational cost place restrictions on the spatial resolution of these simulations.

A Poroelastic Approach for Modelling Myocardial Oedema in Acute Myocarditis.

Myocarditis is a general set of mechanisms that manifest themselves into the inflammation of the heart muscle. In 2017, more than 3 million people were affected by this disease worldwide, causing about 47,000 deaths. Many aspects of the origin of this disease are well known, but several important questions regarding the disease remain open.

Characterisation of Omicron Variant during COVID-19 Pandemic and the Impact of Vaccination, Transmission Rate, Mortality, and Reinfection in South Africa, Germany, and Brazil.

Several variants of SARS-CoV-2 have been identified in different parts of the world, including Gamma, detected in Brazil, Delta, detected in India, and the recent Omicron variant, detected in South Africa. The emergence of a new variant is a cause of great concern. This work considers an extended version of an SIRD model capable of incorporating the effects of vaccination, time-dependent transmissibility rates, mortality, and even potential reinfections during the pandemic.

Timing the race of vaccination, new variants, and relaxing restrictions during COVID-19 pandemic.

Late in 2019, China identified a new type of coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and due to its fast spread, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a pandemic named COVID-19. Some variants of this virus were detected, including the Delta, which caused new waves of infections. This work uses an extended version of a SIRD model that includes vaccination effects to measure the impact of the Delta variant in three countries: Germany, Israel and Brazil.

An ensemble of parameters from a robust Markov-based model reproduces L-type calcium currents from different human cardiac myocytes.

The development of modeling structures at the channel level that can integrate subcellular and cell models and properly reproduce different experimental data is of utmost importance in cardiac electrophysiology. In contrast to gate-based models, Markov Chain models are well suited to promote the integration of the subcellular level of the cardiomyocyte to the whole cell. In this paper, we develop Markov Chain models for the L-type Calcium current that can reproduce the electrophysiology of two established human models for the ventricular and Purkinje cells.

A Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of Cytokine Expression and Human Immune Cell Activation in Response to the Pathogen .

Cell-based mathematical models have previously been developed to simulate the immune system in response to pathogens. Mathematical modeling papers which study the human immune response to pathogens have predicted concentrations of a variety of cells, including activated and resting macrophages, plasma cells, and antibodies. This study aims to create a comprehensive mathematical model that can predict cytokine levels in response to a gram-positive bacterium, by coupling previous models.

Machine Learning Identification of Pro-arrhythmic Structures in Cardiac Fibrosis.

Cardiac fibrosis and other scarring of the heart, arising from conditions ranging from myocardial infarction to ageing, promotes dangerous arrhythmias by blocking the healthy propagation of cardiac excitation. Owing to the complexity of the dynamics of electrical signalling in the heart, however, the connection between different arrangements of blockage and various arrhythmic consequences remains poorly understood. Where a mechanism defies traditional understanding, machine learning can be invaluable for enabling accurate prediction of quantities of interest (measures of arrhythmic risk) in terms of predictor variables (such as the arrangement or pattern of obstructive scarring).

A Validated Mathematical Model of the Cytokine Release Syndrome in Severe COVID-19.

By June 2021, a new contagious disease, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has infected more than 172 million people worldwide, causing more than 3.7 million deaths. Many aspects related to the interactions of the disease's causative agent, SAR2-CoV-2, and the immune response are not well understood: the multiscale interactions among the various components of the human immune system and the pathogen are very complex.

The Quixotic Task of Forecasting Peaks of COVID-19: Rather Focus on Forward and Backward Projections.

Over the last months, mathematical models have been extensively used to help control the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. Although extremely useful in many tasks, most models have performed poorly in forecasting the pandemic peaks. We investigate this common pitfall by forecasting four countries' pandemic peak: Austria, Germany, Italy, and South Korea.

Validation of a yellow fever vaccine model using data from primary vaccination in children and adults, re-vaccination and dose-response in adults and studies with immunocompromised individuals.

Background: An effective yellow fever (YF) vaccine has been available since 1937. Nevertheless, questions regarding its use remain poorly understood, such as the ideal dose to confer immunity against the disease, the need for a booster dose, the optimal immunisation schedule for immunocompetent, immunosuppressed, and pediatric populations, among other issues. This work aims to demonstrate that computational tools can be used to simulate different scenarios regarding YF vaccination and the immune response of individuals to this vaccine, thus assisting the response of some of these open questions.

An audit of uncertainty in multi-scale cardiac electrophysiology models.

Models of electrical activation and recovery in cardiac cells and tissue have become valuable research tools, and are beginning to be used in safety-critical applications including guidance for clinical procedures and for drug safety assessment. As a consequence, there is an urgent need for a more detailed and quantitative understanding of the ways that uncertainty and variability influence model predictions. In this paper, we review the sources of uncertainty in these models at different spatial scales, discuss how uncertainties are communicated across scales, and begin to assess their relative importance.

Variability in electrophysiological properties and conducting obstacles controls re-entry risk in heterogeneous ischaemic tissue.

Ischaemia, in which inadequate blood supply compromises and eventually kills regions of cardiac tissue, can cause many types of arrhythmia, some life-threatening. A significant component of this is the effects of the resulting hypoxia, and concomitant hyperklaemia and acidosis, on the electrophysiological properties of myocytes. Clinical and experimental data have also shown that regions of structural heterogeneity (fibrosis, necrosis, fibro-fatty infiltration) can act as triggers for arrhythmias under acute ischaemic conditions.

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions-that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves.

Delay differential equation-based models of cardiac tissue: Efficient implementation and effects on spiral-wave dynamics.

Delay differential equations (DDEs) recently have been used in models of cardiac electrophysiology, particularly in studies focusing on electrical alternans, instabilities, and chaos. A number of processes within cardiac cells involve delays, and DDEs can potentially represent mechanisms that result in complex dynamics both at the cellular level and at the tissue level, including cardiac arrhythmias. However, DDE-based formulations introduce new computational challenges due to the need for storing and retrieving past values of variables at each spatial location.

A personalized computational model of edema formation in myocarditis based on long-axis biventricular MRI images.

Background: Myocarditis is defined as the inflammation of the myocardium, i.e. the cardiac muscle.