A New Approach for Understanding International Hospital Bed Numbers and Application to Local Area Bed Demand and Capacity Planning.

Three models/methods are given to understand the extreme international variation in available and occupied hospital bed numbers. These models/methods all rely on readily available data. In the first, occupied beds (rather than available beds) are used to measure the expressed demand for hospital beds.

Addressing the Knowledge Deficit in Hospital Bed Planning and Defining an Optimum Region for the Number of Different Types of Hospital Beds in an Effective Health Care System.

Based upon 30-years of research by the author, a new approach to hospital bed planning and international benchmarking is proposed. The number of hospital beds per 1000 people is commonly used to compare international bed numbers. This method is flawed because it does not consider population age structure or the effect of nearness-to-death on hospital utilization.

COVID-19-Related Age Profiles for SARS-CoV-2 Variants in England and Wales and States of the USA (2020 to 2022): Impact on All-Cause Mortality.

Since 2020, COVID-19 has caused serious mortality around the world. Given the ambiguity in establishing COVID-19 as the direct cause of death, we first investigate the effects of age and sex on all-cause mortality during 2020 and 2021 in England and Wales. Since infectious agents have their own unique age profile for death, we use a 9-year time series and several different methods to adjust single-year-of-age deaths in England and Wales during 2019 (the pre-COVID-19 base year) to a pathogen-neutral single-year-of-age baseline.

Cannabis use and sleep disturbances among White, Black, and Latino adults in the United States: A cross-sectional study of National Comorbidity Survey-Replication (2001-2003) data.

Objective: Research investigating cannabis use and sleep health is limited, and results are mixed. Few studies were nationally representative with racially-ethnically diverse samples or assessed potential modifiers. Our objective was to investigate cross-sectional associations between reported cannabis use and sleep disturbances by potential modifiers among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic/Latino men and women in the United States.

Roles for Pathogen Interference in Influenza Vaccination, with Implications to Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) and Attribution of Influenza Deaths.

Pathogen interference is the ability of one pathogen to alter the course and clinical outcomes of infection by another. With up to 3000 species of human pathogens the potential combinations are vast. These combinations operate within further immune complexity induced by infection with multiple persistent pathogens, and by the role which the human microbiome plays in maintaining health, immune function, and resistance to infection.

A Model to Compare International Hospital Bed Numbers, including a Case Study on the Role of Indigenous People on Acute 'Occupied' Bed Demand in Australian States.

Comparing international or regional hospital bed numbers is not an easy matter, and a pragmatic method has been proposed that plots the number of beds per 1000 deaths versus the log of deaths per 1000 population. This method relies on the fact that 55% of a person's lifetime hospital bed utilization occurs in the last year of life-irrespective of the age at death. This is called the nearness to death effect.

System Complexity in Influenza Infection and Vaccination: Effects upon Excess Winter Mortality.

Unexpected outcomes are usually associated with interventions in complex systems. Excess winter mortality (EWM) is a measure of the net effect of all competing forces operating each winter, including influenza(s) and non-influenza pathogens. In this study over 2400 data points from 97 countries are used to look at the net effect of influenza vaccination rates in the elderly aged 65+ against excess winter mortality (EWM) each year from the winter of 1980/81 through to 2019/20.

A pragmatic method to compare international critical care beds: Implications to pandemic preparedness and non-pandemic planning.

Background: The current method for assessing critical care (CCU) bed numbers between countries is unreliable.

Methods: A pragmatic method is presented using a logarithmic relationship between CCU beds per 1000 deaths and deaths per 1000 population, both of which are readily available. The method relies on the importance of the nearness to death effect, and on the effect of population size.

Trends in Excess Winter Mortality (EWM) from 1900/01 to 2019/20-Evidence for a Complex System of Multiple Long-Term Trends.

Trends in excess winter mortality (EWM) were investigated from the winter of 1900/01 to 2019/20. During the 1918-1919 Spanish flu epidemic a maximum EWM of 100% was observed in both Denmark and the USA, and 131% in Sweden. During the Spanish flu epidemic in the USA 70% of excess winter deaths were coded to influenza.

A simple method to validate medical bed number calculations.

Doctors are often asked to make input into bed calculations but are often not provided with the necessary background to the potential flaws in such calculations. A simple method is presented which allows both inter- and intra-national comparison of bed numbers which are sensitive to both population age structure and the role of nearness-to-death in medical bed demand. Local adjustment will be required to account for the additional demand arising for hospitals servicing more deprived populations.

Development of a Multi-Study Repository to Support Research on Veteran Health: The VA Cooperative Studies Program Epidemiology Center-Durham (CSPEC-Durham) Data and Specimen Repository.

Federal agencies, including the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), have prioritized improved access to scientific data and results collected through federally funded research. Our VA Cooperative Studies Program Epidemiology Center in Durham, North Carolina (CSPEC-Durham) assembled a repository of data and specimens collected through multiple studies on Veteran health issues to facilitate future research in these areas. We developed a single protocol, request process that includes scientific and ethical review of all applications, and a database architecture using metadata (common variable descriptors) to securely store and share data across diverse studies.

Excess Winter Mortality (EWM) as a Dynamic Forensic Tool: Where, When, Which Conditions, Gender, Ethnicity and Age.

To investigate the dynamic issues behind intra- and international variation in EWM (Excess Winter Mortality) using a rolling monthly EWM calculation. This is used to reveal seasonal changes in the EWM calculation and is especially relevant nearer to the equator where EWM does not reach a peak at the same time each year. In addition to latitude country specific factors determine EWM.

Were the hospital bed reductions proposed by English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in the sustainability and transformation plans (STPs) achievable? Insights from a new model to compare international bed numbers.

A new model for hospital bed numbers which adjusts for end-of-life care and age structure is used to demonstrate that England has 20% fewer occupied beds than the other countries in the United Kingdom. It also shows that occupied beds in English Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) lie parallel to a line of equivalence with New Zealand and Singapore. This is despite New Zealand and Singapore having invested many years into developing integrated care, while England has not.

Rapid whole-heart CMR with single volume super-resolution.

Background: Three-dimensional, whole heart, balanced steady state free precession (WH-bSSFP) sequences provide delineation of intra-cardiac and vascular anatomy. However, they have long acquisition times. Here, we propose significant speed-ups using a deep-learning single volume super-resolution reconstruction, to recover high-resolution features from rapidly acquired low-resolution WH-bSSFP images.

Would the United States Have Had Too Few Beds for Universal Emergency Care in the Event of a More Widespread Covid-19 Epidemic?

(1) Background: To evaluate the level of hospital bed numbers in U.S. states relative to other countries using a new method for evaluating bed numbers, and to determine if this is sufficient for universal health care during a major Covid-19 epidemic in all states (2) Methods: Hospital bed numbers in each state were compared using a new international comparison methodology.

A pragmatic method to compare hospital bed provision between countries and regions: Beds in the States of Australia.

A simple method is presented to evaluate bed numbers between countries using a logarithmic relationship between beds per 1000 deaths and deaths per 1000 population, both of which are readily available. The method relies on the importance of the nearness to death effect. This method was tested using data from Australian States.

Unexplained periods of higher deaths contribute to marginal changes in health care demand and health insurance costs: International perspectives.

Sudden and unexplained increases in hospital medical admissions and population total deaths have been characterized in the United Kingdom. These sudden increases appear to endure for around 1 to 3 years before they abate. This study demonstrates that the sudden increases in deaths also occur in 125 countries and occur at subnational geographies.

Ethnoracial sleep disparities among college students living in dormitories in the United States: a nationally representative study.

Objectives: Ethnoracial disparities in sleep health across the lifecourse, may underlie other disparities in health and well-being among adults in the United States (U.S.).

The calendar year fallacy: The danger of reliance on calendar year data in end-of-life capacity and financial planning.

Planners, actuaries, and others involved in forecasting capacity and costs must manipulate historical data. Data from calendar/financial year totals have been assumed to be adequate and reliable. This relies on the assumption that year-to-year differences do not arise from patterns concealed in the data.