Past and future effects of climate on the metapopulation dynamics of a Northeast Atlantic seabird across two centuries.

Forecasting population responses to rapidly changing marine ecosystems requires mechanistic models integrating complex demographic processes, fitted to long time series, across large spatial scales. We used a Bayesian metapopulation model fit to colony census data and climatic covariates spanning 1900-2100 for all Northeast Atlantic colonies of an exemplar seabird, the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus) to investigate metapopulation dynamics under two climate scenarios. Fecundity varied non-linearly with near-surface air temperature and recruitment was depressed by sea surface temperature.

Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability.

Demographic correlations are pervasive in wildlife populations and can represent important secondary drivers of population growth. Empirical evidence suggests that correlations are in general positive for long-lived species, but little is known about the degree of variation among spatially segregated populations of the same species in relation to environmental conditions. We assessed the relative importance of two cross-season correlations in survival and productivity, for three Atlantic puffin () populations with contrasting population trajectories and non-overlapping year-round distributions.

The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis.

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations.

Variation and correlation in the timing of breeding of North Atlantic seabirds across multiple scales.

Timing of breeding, an important driver of fitness in many populations, is widely studied in the context of global change, yet despite considerable efforts to identify environmental drivers of seabird nesting phenology, for most populations we lack evidence of strong drivers. Here we adopt an alternative approach, examining the degree to which different populations positively covary in their annual phenology to infer whether phenological responses to environmental drivers are likely to be (a) shared across species at a range of spatial scales, (b) shared across populations of a species or (c) idiosyncratic to populations. We combined 51 long-term datasets on breeding phenology spanning 50 years from nine seabird species across 29 North Atlantic sites and examined the extent to which different populations share early versus late breeding seasons depending on a hierarchy of spatial scales comprising breeding site, small-scale region, large-scale region and the whole North Atlantic.

Diverging phenological responses of Arctic seabirds to an earlier spring.

The timing of annual events such as reproduction is a critical component of how free-living organisms respond to ongoing climate change. This may be especially true in the Arctic, which is disproportionally impacted by climate warming. Here, we show that Arctic seabirds responded to climate change by moving the start of their reproduction earlier, coincident with an advancing onset of spring and that their response is phylogenetically and spatially structured.

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change.

Modelled drift patterns of fish larvae link coastal morphology to seabird colony distribution.

Colonial breeding is an evolutionary puzzle, as the benefits of breeding in high densities are still not fully explained. Although the dynamics of existing colonies are increasingly understood, few studies have addressed the initial formation of colonies, and empirical tests are rare. Using a high-resolution larval drift model, we here document that the distribution of seabird colonies along the Norwegian coast can be explained by variations in the availability and predictability of fish larvae.

Arctic plant responses to changing abiotic factors in northern Alaska.

Premise Of The Study: Understanding the relationship between plants and changing abiotic factors is necessary to document and anticipate the impacts of climate change.

Methods: We used data from long-term research sites at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, to investigate trends in abiotic factors (snow melt and freeze-up dates, air and soil temperature, thaw depth, and soil moisture) and their relationships with plant traits (inflorescence height, leaf length, reproductive effort, and reproductive phenology) over time.

Key Results: Several abiotic factors, including increasing air and soil temperatures, earlier snowmelt, delayed freeze-up, drier soils, and increasing thaw depths, showed nonsignificant tendencies over time that were consistent with the regional warming pattern observed in the Barrow area.

Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation.

Few studies have clearly linked long-term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades.

The stress hormone corticosterone in a marine top predator reflects short-term changes in food availability.

In many seabird studies, single annual proxies of prey abundance have been used to explain variability in breeding performance, but much more important is probably the timing of prey availability relative to the breeding season when energy demand is at a maximum. Until now, intraseasonal variation in prey availability has been difficult to quantify in seabirds. Using a state-of-the-art ocean drift model of larval cod Gadus morhua, an important constituent of the diet of common guillemots Uria aalge in the southwestern Barents Sea, we were able to show clear, short-term correlations between food availability and measurements of the stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in parental guillemots over a 3-year period (2009-2011).

Relationships between persistent organic pollutants and circulating immunoglobulin-Y in black-legged kittiwakes and Atlantic puffins.

Have Although persistent organic pollutants (POPs) may affect the immune system, few field studies actually examined this effect. There are indications that POP exert effects on the immune system; however, in the Arctic ecosystem data are scarce. The aim of this study was to examine immune functions in two medium trophic-positioned seabirds, the black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) and Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica).

Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea.

Virological and serological surveillance for type A influenza in the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla).

Background: The epidemiology of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in gulls is only partially known. The role of the world's most numerous gull species, the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), as a potential AIV reservoir species has been unclear. The prevalence of AIV and humoral response against AIV were therefore studied in a colony of apparently healthy black-legged kittiwakes breeding in a nesting cliff in the South West Barents Region of Norway (70°22' N, 31°10' E), in 2008 and 2009.

Levels and temporal trends (1983-2003) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers and hexabromocyclododecanes in seabird eggs from north Norway.

The present study assessed temporal trends (1983-2003) of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) in eggs of herring gulls (Larus argentatus), Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica), and black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) in North Norway. Generally, PBDE concentrations increased between 1983 and 1993 and then leveled out, although species-specific trends were reported. Levels of alpha-HBCD increased in all species throughout the 20-year period.

Prevalence and diversity of Lyme borreliosis bacteria in marine birds.

A potential role of seabirds in spreading Lyme disease (LB) spirochetes over large spatial scales was suggested more than 10 years ago when Borrelia garinii was observed in marine birds of both hemispheres. Since then, there have been few studies examining the diversity of Borrelia spp. circulating in seabirds, or the potential interaction between terrestrial and marine disease cycles.