Publications by authors named "Robert Scholes"

The two most urgent and interlinked environmental challenges humanity faces are climate change and biodiversity loss. We are entering a pivotal decade for both the international biodiversity and climate change agendas with the sharpening of ambitious strategies and targets by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Within their respective Conventions, the biodiversity and climate interlinked challenges have largely been addressed separately.

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A multitude of actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural and modified ecosystems can have co-benefits for both climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. Reducing greenhouse emissions to limit warming to less than 1.5 or 2°C above preindustrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, can yield strong co-benefits for land, freshwater and marine biodiversity and reduce amplifying climate feedbacks from ecosystem changes.

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Ten months into the Covid-19 pandemic it remains unclear whether transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is affected by climate factors. Using a dynamic epidemiological model with Covid-19 climate sensitivity in the likely range, we demonstrate why attempts to detect a climate signal in Covid-19 have thus far been inconclusive. Then we formulate a novel methodology based on susceptible-infected time trajectories that can be used to test for seasonal climate sensitivity in observed Covid-19 infection data.

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Earth observation-based estimates of global gross primary production (GPP) are essential for understanding the response of the terrestrial biosphere to climatic change and other anthropogenic forcing. In this study, we attempt an ecosystem-level physiological approach of estimating GPP using an asymptotic light response function (LRF) between GPP and incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) that better represents the response observed at high spatiotemporal resolutions than the conventional light use efficiency approach. Modelled GPP is thereafter constrained with meteorological and hydrological variables.

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Global change is affecting terrestrial carbon (C) balances. The effect of climate on ecosystem C balance has been largely explored, but the roles of other concurrently changing factors, such as diversity and nutrient availability, remain elusive. We used eddy-covariance C-flux measurements from 62 ecosystems from which we compiled information on climate, ecosystem type, stand age, species abundance and foliar concentrations of N and P of the main species, to assess their importance in the ecosystem C balance.

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SARS-CoV-2 virus infections in humans were first reported in December 2019, the boreal winter. The resulting COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the WHO in March 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 was present in 213 countries and territories, with over 12 million confirmed cases and over half a million attributed deaths.

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The first Global Assessment of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) found widespread, accelerating declines in Earth's biodiversity and associated benefits to people from nature. Addressing these trends will require science-based policy responses to reduce impacts, especially at national to local scales. Effective scaling of science-policy efforts, driven by global and national assessments, is a major challenge for turning assessment into action and will require unprecedented commitment by scientists to engage with communities of policy and practice.

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DIVERSITAS, the international programme on biodiversity science, is releasing a strategic vision presenting scientific challenges for the next decade of research on biodiversity and ecosystem services: "Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Science for a Sustainable Planet". This new vision is a response of the biodiversity and ecosystem services scientific community to the accelerating loss of the components of biodiversity, as well as to changes in the biodiversity science-policy landscape (establishment of a Biodiversity Observing Network - GEO BON, of an Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services - IPBES, of the new Future Earth initiative; and release of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020). This article presents the vision and its core scientific challenges.

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Article Synopsis
  • This study assesses greenhouse gas emissions from charcoal production in Zambia, specifically examining the impacts on biomass and carbon flux in the miombo woodland at Kataba Forest Reserve.
  • Findings indicated significant biomass loss due to logging for charcoal, with protected areas showing about 150 tons of aboveground biomass per hectare compared to only 24 tons in disturbed plots, although soil carbon levels remained stable.
  • The study concludes that protecting miombo woodlands must consider local energy needs, as charcoal production results in considerable carbon emissions; shifting to alternative energy sources like electricity could reduce forest pressure but would require significant financial investment.
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Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century.

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The mechanisms permitting the co-existence of tree and grass in savannas have been a source of contention for many years. The two main classes of explanations involve either competition for resources, or differential sensitivity to disturbances. Published models focus principally on one or the other of these mechanisms.

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The idea that many processes in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are dormant until activated by a pulse of rainfall, and then decay from a maximum rate as the soil dries, is widely used as a conceptual and mathematical model, but has rarely been evaluated with data. This paper examines soil water, evapotranspiration (ET), and net ecosystem CO2 exchange measured for 5 years at an eddy covariance tower sited in an Acacia-Combretum savanna near Skukuza in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. The analysis characterizes ecosystem flux responses to discrete rain events and evaluates the skill of increasingly complex "pulse models".

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The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) introduced a new framework for analyzing social-ecological systems that has had wide influence in the policy and scientific communities. Studies after the MA are taking up new challenges in the basic science needed to assess, project, and manage flows of ecosystem services and effects on human well-being. Yet, our ability to draw general conclusions remains limited by focus on discipline-bound sectors of the full social-ecological system.

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The African continent has a large and growing role in the global carbon cycle, with potentially important climate change implications. However, the sparse observation network in and around the African continent means that Africa is one of the weakest links in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Here, we combine data from regional and global inventories as well as forward and inverse model analyses to appraise what is known about Africa's continental-scale carbon dynamics.

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Air Force (AF)-certified registered nurse anesthetists (CRNAs) play an important role in the support of the global war on terror. The purpose of the investigation was to use an AF CRNA-specific modification of the Readiness Estimate and Deployability Index Revised for AF Nurses to assess readiness for deployment. Dimensions included clinical competency, operational competency, soldier/survival skills, personal/psychosocial/physical readiness, leadership and administrative support, and group integration/identification.

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Savannas are globally important ecosystems of great significance to human economies. In these biomes, which are characterized by the co-dominance of trees and grasses, woody cover is a chief determinant of ecosystem properties. The availability of resources (water, nutrients) and disturbance regimes (fire, herbivory) are thought to be important in regulating woody cover, but perceptions differ on which of these are the primary drivers of savanna structure.

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