Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model.

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatiotemporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection.

A spatially explicit hierarchical model to characterize population viability.

Many of the processes that govern the viability of animal populations vary spatially, yet population viability analyses (PVAs) that account explicitly for spatial variation are rare. We develop a PVA model that incorporates autocorrelation into the analysis of local demographic information to produce spatially explicit estimates of demography and viability at relatively fine spatial scales across a large spatial extent. We use a hierarchical, spatial, autoregressive model for capture-recapture data from multiple locations to obtain spatially explicit estimates of adult survival (ϕ ), juvenile survival (ϕ ), and juvenile-to-adult transition rates (ψ), and a spatial autoregressive model for recruitment data from multiple locations to obtain spatially explicit estimates of recruitment (R).

Hydrologic variability governs population dynamics of a vulnerable amphibian in an arid environment.

Dynamics of many amphibian populations are governed by the distribution and availability of water. Therefore, understanding the hydrological mechanisms that explain spatial and temporal variation in occupancy and abundance will improve our ability to conserve and recover populations of vulnerable amphibians. We used 16 years of survey data from intermittent mountain streams in the Sonoran Desert to evaluate how availability of surface water affected survival and adult recruitment of a threatened amphibian, the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis).

Red squirrel middens influence abundance but not diversity of other vertebrates.

Some animals modify the environment in ways that can influence the resources available to other species. Because red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) create large piles of conifer-cone debris (middens) in which they store cones, squirrels concentrate resources that might affect biodiversity locally. To determine whether other animals are attracted to midden sites beyond their affinity for the same resources that attract red squirrels, we assessed associations between middens, mammals, and birds at population and community levels.

Spatial and temporal variation in survival of a rare reptile: a 22-year study of Sonoran desert tortoises.

Although many species may be vulnerable to changes in climate, forecasting species-level responses can be challenging given the array of physiological, behavioral, and demographic attributes that might be affected. One strategy to improve forecasts is to evaluate how species responded to climatic variation in the past. We used 22 years of capture-recapture data for Sonoran desert tortoises (Gopherus morafkai) collected from 15 locations across their geographic range in Arizona to evaluate how environmental factors affected spatial and temporal variation in survival.

Importance of environmental and spatial gradients on patterns and consequences of resource selection.

Strategies to conserve rare species require identifying resources that function as important habitat elements and that promote high demographic performance. Assessing the relative importance of resources, however, can be confounded by natural variation in resource availability and by the hierarchical spatial structure in which resources are organized. Because availability and relative importance of resources often vary across environmental and spatial gradients, we used gradients together with resource selection functions and variance decomposition to assess the relative importance of resources to nest site selection and reproductive performance of Ferruginous Pygmy-Owls (Glaucidium brasilianum).