Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change.

Manual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress.

Cropland expansion in Ecuador between 2000 and 2016.

We describe changes in the cropland distribution for physiographic and bioregions of continental Ecuador between 2000 and 2016 using Landsat satellite data and government statistics. The cloudy conditions in Ecuador are a major constraint to satellite data analysis. We developed a two-stage cloud filtering algorithm to create cloud-free multi-temporal Landsat composites that were used in a Random Forest model to identify cropland.

Estimating lime requirements for tropical soils: Model comparison and development.

Acid tropical soils may become more productive when treated with agricultural lime, but optimal lime rates have yet to be determined in many tropical regions. In these regions, lime rates can be estimated with lime requirement models based on widely available soil data. We reviewed seven of these models and introduced a new model (LiTAS).

Increased women's empowerment and regional inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1995 and 2015.

Women's empowerment is a fundamental human right but attempts to measure progress in this area have been limited. We used 142 nationally representative surveys to quantify empowerment in six domains (Intimate Partner Violence, Family Planning, Reproductive Healthcare, Employment, Education, and Decision-Making) for first-level subdivisions of all countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for three years (1995, 2005, and 2015). The possible value for each domain ranged between zero (worst) and one (best).

Evaluating the quality of remote sensing products for agricultural index insurance.

Agricultural index insurance contracts increasingly use remote sensing data to estimate losses and determine indemnity payouts. Index insurance contracts inevitably make errors, failing to detect losses that occur and issuing payments when no losses occur. The quality of these contracts and the indices on which they are based, need to be evaluated to assess their fitness as insurance, and to provide a guide to choosing the index that best protects the insured.

Fertilizer and grain prices constrain food production in sub-Saharan Africa.

Crop yields across sub-Saharan Africa are much lower than what is attainable given the environmental conditions and available technologies. Closing this 'ecological yield gap' is considered an important food security and rural welfare goal. It is not clear, however, whether it is economically sensible for farmers to substantially increase crop yields.

Seasonal, annual, and spatial variation in cereal prices in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Local food prices are key indicators of food security and market conditions. Yet price data are often not available, particularly for rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. We compiled data from 168 markets to study spatial and temporal price variation.

The scale dependency of spatial crop species diversity and its relation to temporal diversity.

Increasing crop species diversity can enhance agricultural sustainability, but the scale dependency of the processes that shape diversity and of the effects of diversity on agroecosystems is insufficiently understood. We used 30 m spatial resolution crop classification data for the conterminous United States to analyze spatial and temporal crop species diversity and their relationship. We found that the US average temporal (crop rotation) diversity is 2.

The Female Empowerment Index (FEMI): spatial and temporal variation in women's empowerment in Nigeria.

Improving female empowerment is an important human rights and development goal that needs better monitoring. A number of indices have been developed to track female empowerment at the national level, but these are incomplete and may obscure important sub-national variation. We developed the Female Empowerment Index (FEMI) to track multiple domains of women's empowerment at the sub-national level.

The environmental consequences of climate-driven agricultural frontiers.

Growing conditions for crops such as coffee and wine grapes are shifting to track climate change. Research on these crop responses has focused principally on impacts to food production impacts, but evidence is emerging that they may have serious environmental consequences as well. Recent research has documented potential environmental impacts of shifting cropping patterns, including impacts on water, wildlife, pollinator interaction, carbon storage and nature conservation, on national to global scales.

Spatial variation in fertilizer prices in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Low crop yields in Sub-Saharan Africa are associated with low fertilizer use. To better understand patterns of, and opportunities for, fertilizer use, location specific fertilizer price data may be relevant. We compiled local market price data for urea fertilizer, a source of inorganic nitrogen, in 1729 locations in eighteen countries in two regions (West and East Africa) from 2010-2018 to understand patterns in the spatial variation in fertilizer prices.

Agricultural intensification was associated with crop diversification in India (1947-2014).

Declines in agricultural biodiversity associated with modern farming practices may negatively affect the sustainability of agro-ecosystems, but formal knowledge of historical variation in spatio-temporal variation of agro-biodiversity is limited. We used time series of national (1947-2014) and district-level (1956-2008) crop distribution data for India to show that despite strong agricultural intensification after 1960, the average crop species diversity at the district level was stable, but increased at the country-level. While there was a decline in diversity in the major rice and wheat producing regions of northwestern India, associated with intensification of the production of these crops, diversity in western and southern India increased due to expansion of oilseeds and horticultural crops that replaced millet and sorghum.

Identification of high risk areas for avian influenza outbreaks in California using disease distribution models.

The coexistence of different types of poultry operations such as free range and backyard flocks, large commercial indoor farms and live bird markets, as well as the presence of many areas where wild and domestic birds co-exist, make California susceptible to avian influenza outbreaks. The 2014-2015 highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks affecting California and other states in the United States have underscored the need for solutions to protect the US poultry industry against this devastating disease. We applied disease distribution models to predict where Avian influenza is likely to occur and the risk for HPAI outbreaks is highest.

RiceAtlas, a spatial database of global rice calendars and production.

Knowing where, when, and how much rice is planted and harvested is crucial information for understanding the effects of policy, trade, and global and technological change on food security. We developed RiceAtlas, a spatial database on the seasonal distribution of the world's rice production. It consists of data on rice planting and harvesting dates by growing season and estimates of monthly production for all rice-producing countries.

Global trends in dietary micronutrient supplies and estimated prevalence of inadequate intakes.

Understanding dietary patterns is vital to reducing the number of people experiencing hunger (about 795 million), micronutrient deficiencies (2 billion), and overweight or obesity (2.1 billion). We characterize global trends in dietary quality by estimating micronutrient density of the food supply, prevalence of inadequate intake of 14 micronutrients, and average prevalence of inadequate intake of these micronutrients for all countries between 1961 and 2011.

Point stresses during reproductive stage rather than warming seasonal temperature determine yield in temperate rice.

Climate change is predicted to shift temperature regimes in most agricultural areas with temperature changes expected to impact yields of most crops, including rice. These temperature-driven effects can be classified into point stresses, where a temperature event during a sensitive stage drives a reduction in yield, or seasonal warming losses, where raised temperature is thought to increase maintenance energy demands and thereby decrease available resources for yield formation. Simultaneous estimation of the magnitude of each temperature effect on yield has not been well documented due to the inherent difficulty in separating their effects.

The Use of Spatial and Spatiotemporal Modeling for Surveillance of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry in the Middle East.

Since 2005, H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) has severely impacted the economy and public health in the Middle East (ME) with Egypt as the most affected country. Understanding the high-risk areas and spatiotemporal distribution of the H5N1 HPAIV in poultry is prerequisite for establishing risk-based surveillance activities at a regional level in the ME. Here, we aimed to predict the geographic range of H5N1 HPAIV outbreaks in poultry in the ME using a set of environmental variables and to investigate the spatiotemporal clustering of outbreaks in the region.

Historical distribution of Sundaland's Dipterocarp rainforests at Quaternary glacial maxima.

The extent of Dipterocarp rainforests on the emergent Sundaland landmass in Southeast Asia during Quaternary glaciations remains a key question. A better understanding of the biogeographic history of Sundaland could help explain current patterns of biodiversity and support the development of effective forest conservation strategies. Dipterocarpaceae trees dominate the rainforests of Sundaland, and their distributions serve as a proxy for rainforest extent.

Multiple lines of evidence for the origin of domesticated chili pepper, Capsicum annuum, in Mexico.

The study of crop origins has traditionally involved identifying geographic areas of high morphological diversity, sampling populations of wild progenitor species, and the archaeological retrieval of macroremains. Recent investigations have added identification of plant microremains (phytoliths, pollen, and starch grains), biochemical and molecular genetic approaches, and dating through (14)C accelerator mass spectrometry. We investigate the origin of domesticated chili pepper, Capsicum annuum, by combining two approaches, species distribution modeling and paleobiolinguistics, with microsatellite genetic data and archaeobotanical data.

Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight.

Weather affects the severity of many plant diseases, and climate change is likely to alter the patterns of crop disease severity. Evaluating possible future patterns can help focus crop breeding and disease management research. We examined the global effect of climate change on potato late blight, the disease that caused the Irish potato famine and still is a common potato disease around the world.

Managing potato biodiversity to cope with frost risk in the high Andes: a modeling perspective.

Austral summer frosts in the Andean highlands are ubiquitous throughout the crop cycle, causing yield losses. In spite of the existing warming trend, climate change models forecast high variability, including freezing temperatures. As the potato center of origin, the region has a rich biodiversity which includes a set of frost resistant genotypes.

Climate change, wine, and conservation.

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots.

Cross-validation of species distribution models: removing spatial sorting bias and calibration with a null model.

Species distribution models are usually evaluated with cross-validation. In this procedure evaluation statistics are computed from model predictions for sites of presence and absence that were not used to train (fit) the model. Using data for 226 species, from six regions, and two species distribution modeling algorithms (Bioclim and MaxEnt), I show that this procedure is highly sensitive to "spatial sorting bias": the difference between the geographic distance from testing-presence to training-presence sites and the geographic distance from testing-absence (or testing-background) to training-presence sites.