The role of the 30% threshold for Islamic parties: A fast-growing middle class and religion-based political preferences in Indonesia.

Recently, Indonesia's middle-class Muslims have come under suspicion for strengthening the religious foundation of their political preferences. However, while this suspicion has been triggered by their increasingly confident expressions of Islamic identity in political, social and economic spheres, these public expressions do not consistently translate into electoral outcomes. Despite the significant growth of the middle class, the proportion of votes cast for Islamic parties, encompassing both pro-s or Islamist and Islam-inclusive parties, has declined from 37% in 1999 to 30% in 2019.