Phytoplankton responses to repeated pulse perturbations imposed on a trend of increasing eutrophication.

While eutrophication remains one of the main pressures acting on freshwater ecosystems, the prevalence of anthropogenic and nature-induced stochastic pulse perturbations is predicted to increase due to climate change. Despite all our knowledge on the effects of eutrophication and stochastic events operating in isolation, we know little about how eutrophication may affect the response and recovery of aquatic ecosystems to pulse perturbations. There are multiple ways in which eutrophication and pulse perturbations may interact to induce potentially synergic changes in the system, for instance, by increasing the amount of nutrients released after a pulse perturbation.

Causal networks of phytoplankton diversity and biomass are modulated by environmental context.

Untangling causal links and feedbacks among biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental factors is challenging due to their complex and context-dependent interactions (e.g., a nutrient-dependent relationship between diversity and biomass).

Phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundances in mid-21st century lakes depend strongly on future land use and climate projections.

Land use and climate change are anticipated to affect phytoplankton of lakes worldwide. The effects will depend on the magnitude of projected land use and climate changes and lake sensitivity to these factors. We used random forests fit with long-term (1971-2016) phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundance time series, climate observations (1971-2016), and upstream catchment land use (global Clumondo models for the year 2000) data from 14 European and 15 North American lakes basins.

Earlier winter/spring runoff and snowmelt during warmer winters lead to lower summer chlorophyll-a in north temperate lakes.

Winter conditions, such as ice cover and snow accumulation, are changing rapidly at northern latitudes and can have important implications for lake processes. For example, snowmelt in the watershed-a defining feature of lake hydrology because it delivers a large portion of annual nutrient inputs-is becoming earlier. Consequently, earlier and a shorter duration of snowmelt are expected to affect annual phytoplankton biomass.

Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe.

Local biodiversity trends over time are likely to be decoupled from global trends, as local processes may compensate or counteract global change. We analyze 161 long-term biological time series (15-91 years) collected across Europe, using a comprehensive dataset comprising ~6,200 marine, freshwater and terrestrial taxa. We test whether (i) local long-term biodiversity trends are consistent among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, and (ii) changes in biodiversity correlate with regional climate and local conditions.

Energetic equivalence underpins the size structure of tree and phytoplankton communities.

The size structure of autotroph communities - the relative abundance of small vs. large individuals - shapes the functioning of ecosystems. Whether common mechanisms underpin the size structure of unicellular and multicellular autotrophs is, however, unknown.

Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy.

There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework.

Reconciling the opposing effects of warming on phytoplankton biomass in 188 large lakes.

Lake ecosystems are deeply integrated into local and regional economies through recreation, tourism, and as sources of food and drinking water. Shifts in lake phytoplankton biomass, which are mediated by climate warming will alter these benefits with potential cascading effects on human well-being. The metabolic theory of ecology suggests that warming reduces lake phytoplankton biomass as basal metabolic costs increase, but this hypothesis has not been tested at the global scale.

Cross-realm assessment of climate change impacts on species' abundance trends.

Climate change, land-use change, pollution and exploitation are among the main drivers of species' population trends; however, their relative importance is much debated. We used a unique collection of over 1,000 local population time series in 22 communities across terrestrial, freshwater and marine realms within central Europe to compare the impacts of long-term temperature change and other environmental drivers from 1980 onwards. To disentangle different drivers, we related species' population trends to species- and driver-specific attributes, such as temperature and habitat preference or pollution tolerance.

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems.

Ecosystems can show sudden and persistent changes in state despite only incremental changes in drivers. Such critical transitions are difficult to predict, because the state of the system often shows little change before the transition. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) are hypothesized to signal the loss of system resilience and have been shown to precede critical transitions in theoretical models, paleo-climate time series, and in laboratory as well as whole lake experiments.

Ecology under lake ice.

Winter conditions are rapidly changing in temperate ecosystems, particularly for those that experience periods of snow and ice cover. Relatively little is known of winter ecology in these systems, due to a historical research focus on summer 'growing seasons'. We executed the first global quantitative synthesis on under-ice lake ecology, including 36 abiotic and biotic variables from 42 research groups and 101 lakes, examining seasonal differences and connections as well as how seasonal differences vary with geophysical factors.

Warming trends of perialpine lakes from homogenised time series of historical satellite and in-situ data.

The availability of more than thirty years of historical satellite data is a valuable source which could be used as an alternative to the sparse in-situ data. We developed a new homogenised time series of daily day time Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) over the last thirty years (1986-2015) at a spatial resolution of 1km from thirteen polar orbiting satellites. The new homogenisation procedure implemented in this study corrects for the different acquisition times of the satellites standardizing the derived LSWT to 12:00 UTC.

Homogenised daily lake surface water temperature data generated from multiple satellite sensors: A long-term case study of a large sub-Alpine lake.

Availability of remotely sensed multi-spectral images since the 1980's, which cover three decades of voluminous data could help researchers to study the changing dynamics of bio-physical characteristics of land and water. In this study, we introduce a new methodology to develop homogenised Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) from multiple polar orbiting satellites. Precisely, we developed homogenised 1 km daily LSWT maps covering the last 30 years (1986 to 2015) combining data from 13 satellites.

Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes.

Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption.

Winter severity determines functional trait composition of phytoplankton in seasonally ice-covered lakes.

How climate change will affect the community dynamics and functionality of lake ecosystems during winter is still little understood. This is also true for phytoplankton in seasonally ice-covered temperate lakes which are particularly vulnerable to the presence or absence of ice. We examined changes in pelagic phytoplankton winter community structure in a north temperate lake (Müggelsee, Germany), covering 18 winters between 1995 and 2013.

A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985-2009.

Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structure and function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakes across many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associated with the magnitude of these trends remains unclear.

Synchronous dynamics of zooplankton competitors prevail in temperate lake ecosystems.

Although competing species are expected to exhibit compensatory dynamics (negative temporal covariation), empirical work has demonstrated that competitive communities often exhibit synchronous dynamics (positive temporal covariation). This has led to the suggestion that environmental forcing dominates species dynamics; however, synchronous and compensatory dynamics may appear at different length scales and/or at different times, making it challenging to identify their relative importance. We compiled 58 long-term datasets of zooplankton abundance in north-temperate and sub-tropical lakes and used wavelet analysis to quantify general patterns in the times and scales at which synchronous/compensatory dynamics dominated zooplankton communities in different regions and across the entire dataset.